{ "ticker": { "uuid": "35e6239c-5cab-4ba7-bf08-a48abaf50914", "symbol": "MOVI3", "name": "Movida Participa\u00e7\u00f5es S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.797, "architecture_energy": 87.25, "architecture_maturity": 34.0, "architecture_confidence": 95.839, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.85, "rotation_up": 14.64, "upward_expansion": 21.67, "deceleration": 37.12, "rotation_down": 74.07, "downward_expansion": 97.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.017077, 8.511115, 9.352008, 10.151953 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 7.76, "trend_reference": 11.008285, "distance_from_trend": -0.295076, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.752472, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.000971, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.953069, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.430668, "excess_performance": -0.373619, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.295076, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031016, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.000971, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.498437, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.239531, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.340493, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.430668, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.261791, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23096901, "relative_activity": 1.041749, "balance": 0.261791, "dry_up": 0.960531, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.117969, "annualized_volatility": 0.52479, "from_high_reference": -0.48163, "from_low_reference": 0.279353 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.008285, "fair_value_reference": 7.752472, "structural_low": 7.471747, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.005661, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.01177, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.486339, "worst_return": -0.313214, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.106031, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.129846, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.808552, "worst_return": -0.273159, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.124537, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.122195, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.57445, "worst_return": -0.418534, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.074854, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.307692, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.061636, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.257576, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.134263, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.153404, "active": false 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.916471, "energy": 61.687592, "activity_lines": [ 9.088, 9.238, 10.169664, 10.791257 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.94, "volume": 23785400, "typical_volume": 22799474.35, "trend": 11.148984, "fair_value": 7.796017, "relative_strength": -23.000873, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.609692, "energy": 79.400236, "activity_lines": [ 8.676, 8.983091, 9.888, 10.580957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.819039, "volume": 16023154, "typical_volume": 22321827.7, "trend": 11.079618, "fair_value": 7.777184, "relative_strength": -25.886846, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.801881, "energy": 86.604005, "activity_lines": [ 8.29368, 8.737643, 9.614528, 10.366122 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.76, "volume": 23096901, "typical_volume": 22171282.75, "trend": 11.008285, "fair_value": 7.752472, "relative_strength": -23.953069, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.796931, "energy": 87.249706, "activity_lines": [ 8.017077, 8.511115, 9.352008, 10.151953 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }