{ "ticker": { "uuid": "35e6732f-fb41-47cf-8957-12765f5e0b19", "symbol": "GSOV", "name": "Franklin Sustainable Euro Green Sovereign UCITS ETF", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 58.789, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -19.565, "architecture_energy": 20.293, "architecture_maturity": 9.652, "architecture_confidence": 65.43, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.09, "rotation_up": 20.41, "upward_expansion": 10.07, "deceleration": 57.32, "rotation_down": 53.38, "downward_expansion": 44.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.136133, 27.216745, 27.22499, 27.213755 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 27.225, "trend_reference": 27.2174, "distance_from_trend": 0.000279, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.042179, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.006761, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.45599, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.000991, "excess_performance": -0.065631, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.000279, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001536, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.006761, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000788, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.07456, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06524, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.000991, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.257561, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 717, "relative_activity": 0.369283, "balance": 0.257561, "dry_up": 2.88203, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.010231, "annualized_volatility": 0.052238, "from_high_reference": -0.015513, "from_low_reference": 0.014987 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.2174, "fair_value_reference": 27.042179, "structural_low": 26.823, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.002942, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.000717, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.013552, "worst_return": -0.005125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.00163, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.003008, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.007314, "worst_return": -0.00151, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.004544, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.00094, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.010525, "worst_return": -0.001436, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003572, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.012217, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008517, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.014729, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010221, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009006, "active": true } ], 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21209, "typical_volume": 1913.2, "trend": 27.2147, "fair_value": 27.04091, "relative_strength": -5.950998, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.303619, "energy": 21.698122, "activity_lines": [ 27.125, 27.226454, 27.220343, 27.21309 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.225, "volume": 717, "typical_volume": 1941.6, "trend": 27.2174, "fair_value": 27.042179, "relative_strength": -7.45599, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.564837, "energy": 20.292892, "activity_lines": [ 27.136133, 27.216745, 27.22499, 27.213755 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }