{ "ticker": { "uuid": "35e84057-4356-44a0-bc9e-cba2cd686e9a", "symbol": "PG", "name": "People's Garment Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 56.16, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 11.859, "architecture_energy": 9.427, "architecture_maturity": 16.901, "architecture_confidence": 60.15, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 66.99, "rotation_up": 21.05, "upward_expansion": 43.84, "deceleration": 83.87, "rotation_down": 30.23, "downward_expansion": 26.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.536667, 6.611818, 6.617178, 6.533977 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.5, "trend_reference": 6.397304, "distance_from_trend": 0.016053, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.413308, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.123198, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.098859, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.119822, "excess_performance": -0.072503, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.016053, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005451, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.123198, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089002, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.140989, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07193, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.119822, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.197577, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6300, "relative_activity": 0.320529, "balance": 0.197577, "dry_up": 0.452811, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083365, "annualized_volatility": 0.349978, "from_high_reference": -0.234788, "from_low_reference": 0.147818 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.397304, "fair_value_reference": 7.413308, "structural_low": 5.662921, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.478261, "directional_follow_through": 0.478261, "median_excess_return": 0.00203, "regime_survival": 0.73913, "best_return": 0.099657, "worst_return": -0.070652, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.006944, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.050636, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.124138, "worst_return": -0.24581, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.011299, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.053204, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.131944, "worst_return": -0.162607, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.122295, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.197803, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.160421, "worst_return": -0.174078, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.028249, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010989, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.012569, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006803, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.026667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.04, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.035714, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007576, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-29", 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.420688, "energy": 18.439261, "activity_lines": [ 6.653333, 6.671818, 6.614717, 6.502935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.6, "volume": 15300, "typical_volume": 19355.0, "trend": 6.390169, "fair_value": 7.422779, "relative_strength": -15.527154, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.358732, "energy": 15.280526, "activity_lines": [ 6.613333, 6.658182, 6.621835, 6.516458 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.55, "volume": 7900, "typical_volume": 19455.0, "trend": 6.388277, "fair_value": 7.418348, "relative_strength": -14.605607, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.879836, "energy": 14.601831, "activity_lines": [ 6.556667, 6.64, 6.622651, 6.526769 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.5, "volume": 6300, "typical_volume": 19655.0, "trend": 6.397304, "fair_value": 7.413308, "relative_strength": -14.098859, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.858515, "energy": 9.426871, "activity_lines": [ 6.536667, 6.611818, 6.617178, 6.533977 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }