{ "ticker": { "uuid": "35ea6225-8a11-4577-9c72-84e3ff5dfffe", "symbol": "TSND", "name": "TerrAscend Corp.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.085, "architecture_energy": 76.877, "architecture_maturity": 20.639, "architecture_confidence": 81.767, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.53, "rotation_up": 8.59, "upward_expansion": 17.43, "deceleration": 37.03, "rotation_down": 80.35, "downward_expansion": 95.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.733333, 0.794727, 0.852905, 0.86914 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.73, "trend_reference": 0.8935, "distance_from_trend": -0.182988, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.403686, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.479941, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.262516, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.206522, "excess_performance": -0.326943, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.182988, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026158, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.479941, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.115015, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.332625, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.322655, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.206522, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.740516, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 890400, "relative_activity": 0.863925, "balance": 0.740516, "dry_up": 0.637902, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.134352, "annualized_volatility": 0.611925, "from_high_reference": -0.635, "from_low_reference": 0.377358 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.8935, "fair_value_reference": 1.403686, "structural_low": 0.63, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": -0.076965, "positive_rate": 0.361111, "directional_follow_through": 0.638889, "median_excess_return": -0.068851, "regime_survival": 0.861111, "best_return": 1.479167, "worst_return": -0.372727, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.209424, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.213033, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 2.333333, "worst_return": -0.468254, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.427333, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.398329, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 1.8, "worst_return": -0.617347, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.085714, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.232365, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.675393, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 1.121622, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", 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"close": 0.74, "volume": 446000, "typical_volume": 1023495.0, "trend": 0.918167, "fair_value": 1.420897, "relative_strength": -30.840059, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.808379, "energy": 73.578725, "activity_lines": [ 0.795333, 0.855091, 0.886143, 0.894602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.7, "volume": 640500, "typical_volume": 1029420.0, "trend": 0.9065, "fair_value": 1.413429, "relative_strength": -34.184245, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.441599, "energy": 80.93231, "activity_lines": [ 0.751333, 0.820545, 0.867548, 0.880527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.73, "volume": 890400, "typical_volume": 1030645.0, "trend": 0.8935, "fair_value": 1.403686, "relative_strength": -33.262516, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.084557, "energy": 76.876958, "activity_lines": [ 0.733333, 0.794727, 0.852905, 0.86914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }