{ "ticker": { "uuid": "35f24862-962d-4d17-bbde-10f430f55e7d", "symbol": "SGP", "name": "Siamgas and Petrochemicals Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 51.885, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 1.198, "architecture_energy": 12.722, "architecture_maturity": 27.554, "architecture_confidence": 77.914, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.47, "rotation_up": 19.57, "upward_expansion": 46.37, "deceleration": 82.5, "rotation_down": 36.74, "downward_expansion": 33.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.103333, 8.122727, 8.324048, 8.251853 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 8.1, "trend_reference": 8.064323, "distance_from_trend": 0.004424, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.108116, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.139543, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.118775, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.131846, "excess_performance": -0.060479, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.004424, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053639, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.139543, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082775, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.061188, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117698, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.131846, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.093629, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1132700, "relative_activity": 1.336764, "balance": 2.093629, "dry_up": 0.765774, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04416, "annualized_volatility": 0.230095, "from_high_reference": -0.129032, "from_low_reference": 0.66682 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.064323, "fair_value_reference": 7.108116, "structural_low": 7.057742, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.007519, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.013548, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.064, "worst_return": -0.071795, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.008821, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.055819, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.201713, "worst_return": -0.136771, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.044985, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.058957, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.131846, "worst_return": -0.133272, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -4.472775, "energy": 28.429661, "activity_lines": [ 8.023333, 8.284545, 8.381673, 8.231945 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.25, "volume": 458900, "typical_volume": 874845.0, "trend": 8.034344, "fair_value": 7.101791, "relative_strength": -6.267945, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.493236, "energy": 22.509037, "activity_lines": [ 8.096667, 8.236364, 8.37619, 8.247255 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.05, "volume": 493400, "typical_volume": 847425.0, "trend": 8.044387, "fair_value": 7.105223, "relative_strength": -7.377249, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.623812, "energy": 16.765557, "activity_lines": [ 8.093333, 8.167273, 8.348333, 8.248265 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.1, "volume": 1132700, "typical_volume": 847345.0, "trend": 8.064323, "fair_value": 7.108116, "relative_strength": -6.118775, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.198397, "energy": 12.722315, "activity_lines": [ 8.103333, 8.122727, 8.324048, 8.251853 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }