{ "ticker": { "uuid": "35f4b7c1-2638-4606-a4de-5feac17b7e79", "symbol": "GENO", "name": "Genovis AB (publ.)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 48.747, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 34.94, "architecture_energy": 20.018, "architecture_maturity": 19.838, "architecture_confidence": 62.61, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.05, "rotation_up": 46.03, "upward_expansion": 69.49, "deceleration": 49.04, "rotation_down": 18.77, "downward_expansion": 10.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.763333, 19.680182, 19.741857, 19.456602 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 19.799999, "trend_reference": 19.355333, "distance_from_trend": 0.022974, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 28.552244, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.306534, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.649764, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.031785, "excess_performance": -0.093279, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.022974, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020463, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.306534, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042554, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.146498, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045279, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.031785, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.733383, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 113943, "relative_activity": 0.446506, "balance": 0.733383, "dry_up": 0.724265, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077117, "annualized_volatility": 0.370415, "from_high_reference": -0.296625, "from_low_reference": 0.265985 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.355333, "fair_value_reference": 28.552244, "structural_low": 15.64, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.062588, "positive_rate": 0.315789, "directional_follow_through": 0.315789, "median_excess_return": -0.057255, "regime_survival": 0.526316, "best_return": 0.260304, "worst_return": -0.264, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.01737, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.095013, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.656934, "worst_return": -0.406427, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.051214, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.081162, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.13242, "worst_return": -0.283552, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.230476, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.33944, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.060606, "worst_return": -0.284274, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025229, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011765, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.421251, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.105566, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.077329, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037657, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.019438, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004357, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.030879, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.200903, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.143868, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024814, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.036675, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.011236, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 44.299999, "volume": 283317, "typical_volume": 295076.2, "trend": 54.65, "fair_value": 49.045833, "relative_strength": -10.505265, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", 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"trend": 19.532667, "fair_value": 29.072564, "relative_strength": -12.480742, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.969894, "energy": 10.729518, "activity_lines": [ 19.634, 19.625637, 19.603572, 19.393312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.049999, "volume": 224583, "typical_volume": 260052.75, "trend": 19.494333, "fair_value": 28.904936, "relative_strength": -12.590289, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 9.461921, "energy": 11.377679, "activity_lines": [ 19.836666, 19.674909, 19.687762, 19.426688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.58, "volume": 192487, "typical_volume": 261507.2, "trend": 19.422, "fair_value": 28.734295, "relative_strength": -14.857677, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.042332, "energy": 14.723473, "activity_lines": [ 19.767333, 19.649636, 19.711143, 19.432215 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.799999, "volume": 113943, "typical_volume": 255187.9, "trend": 19.355333, "fair_value": 28.552244, "relative_strength": -14.649764, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.939899, "energy": 20.017686, "activity_lines": [ 19.763333, 19.680182, 19.741857, 19.456602 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }