{ "ticker": { "uuid": "35f6f216-00e5-45f2-95a7-171b02d364e7", "symbol": "OSK", "name": "Oshkosh Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 95.023, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 24.872, "architecture_energy": 27.503, "architecture_maturity": 16.351, "architecture_confidence": 61.414, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.96, "rotation_up": 53.3, "upward_expansion": 42.32, "deceleration": 28.58, "rotation_down": 17.92, "downward_expansion": 17.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 149.668, 147.240364, 143.067521, 144.316158 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 155.26, "trend_reference": 147.251509, "distance_from_trend": 0.054386, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 114.917016, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.351062, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.493313, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.088746, "excess_performance": -0.214371, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.054386, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035308, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.351062, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.103848, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.014933, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070391, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.088746, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.678406, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4522449, "relative_activity": 1.241014, "balance": 1.678406, "dry_up": 1.345383, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084501, "annualized_volatility": 0.429033, "from_high_reference": -0.133646, "from_low_reference": 0.335478 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 147.251509, "fair_value_reference": 114.917016, "structural_low": 116.257969, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.007553, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.015984, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.145478, "worst_return": -0.16026, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.050041, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.04491, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.281162, "worst_return": -0.141446, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.049049, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.030468, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.302452, "worst_return": -0.168247, "sufficient": 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"balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.839143, "energy": 16.648277, "activity_lines": [ 144.966667, 141.033183, 140.421453, 143.461196 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 155.14, "volume": 4467190, "typical_volume": 3433643.9, "trend": 146.679221, "fair_value": 114.277399, "relative_strength": 2.737304, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.27779, "energy": 24.090042, "activity_lines": [ 148.424, 144.381754, 141.701081, 144.062108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 142.41, "volume": 6675763, "typical_volume": 3597140.45, "trend": 147.05301, "fair_value": 114.553706, "relative_strength": -6.553905, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.858872, "energy": 12.507279, "activity_lines": [ 146.598, 144.774364, 141.762623, 143.786675 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 155.26, "volume": 4522449, "typical_volume": 3644156.1, "trend": 147.251509, "fair_value": 114.917016, "relative_strength": -1.493313, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.871748, "energy": 27.502912, "activity_lines": [ 149.668, 147.240364, 143.067521, 144.316158 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }