{ "ticker": { "uuid": "35fc22dc-6c1e-480f-a77e-c861934eca54", "symbol": "IXC", "name": "ISHARES TRUST GLOBAL ENERGY ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 83.608, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 52.118, "architecture_energy": 41.012, "architecture_maturity": 14.338, "architecture_confidence": 61.679, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.11, "rotation_up": 66.24, "upward_expansion": 74.01, "deceleration": 67.56, "rotation_down": 11.14, "downward_expansion": 5.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 54.37, 53.031119, 53.0307, 52.975862 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 53.62, "trend_reference": 52.075408, "distance_from_trend": 0.029661, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 40.684926, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.317933, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.481528, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.111675, "excess_performance": -0.01395, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.029661, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07603, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.317933, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021518, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.014815, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057177, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.111675, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.44933, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5687828, "relative_activity": 1.054873, "balance": 1.44933, "dry_up": 0.799004, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047168, "annualized_volatility": 0.246894, "from_high_reference": -0.081244, "from_low_reference": 0.406876 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 52.075408, "fair_value_reference": 40.684926, "structural_low": 48.184232, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.012482, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.016899, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.141157, "worst_return": -0.161854, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.009369, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.016443, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.278115, "worst_return": -0.132937, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.049353, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.022731, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.289518, "worst_return": -0.028232, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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50.258062, 51.383088, 52.528196, 52.051877 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 53.5, "volume": 4074629, "typical_volume": 5705813.3, "trend": 50.760122, "fair_value": 40.306345, "relative_strength": 6.356066, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.223533, "energy": 21.762193, "activity_lines": [ 51.22, 51.616775, 52.570349, 52.256808 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 55.5, "volume": 3799968, "typical_volume": 5501880.45, "trend": 51.247565, "fair_value": 40.439543, "relative_strength": 10.562289, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.384674, "energy": 23.963054, "activity_lines": [ 52.842667, 52.192755, 52.791518, 52.562607 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 55.73, "volume": 3670346, "typical_volume": 5517719.4, "trend": 51.696982, "fair_value": 40.572667, "relative_strength": 9.437572, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.249031, "energy": 38.832943, "activity_lines": [ 54.164, 52.806997, 53.017412, 52.851796 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 53.62, "volume": 5687828, "typical_volume": 5391953.5, "trend": 52.075408, "fair_value": 40.684926, "relative_strength": 1.481528, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.117618, "energy": 41.011795, "activity_lines": [ 54.37, 53.031119, 53.0307, 52.975862 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }