{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3601e43b-0241-4c9a-a14b-a7efad7be9e1", "symbol": "ASTL", "name": "Algoma Steel Group Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 79.024, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.954, "architecture_energy": 30.537, "architecture_maturity": 18.145, "architecture_confidence": 79.367, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.96, "rotation_up": 17.9, "upward_expansion": 7.64, "deceleration": 56.83, "rotation_down": 50.9, "downward_expansion": 71.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.001, 4.047273, 4.367762, 4.401957 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.075, "trend_reference": 4.4415, "distance_from_trend": -0.082517, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.60039, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.382612, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.772164, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.116052, "excess_performance": -0.303506, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.082517, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013193, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.382612, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.138024, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.177722, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069751, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.116052, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.100602, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5909872, "relative_activity": 1.128086, "balance": 1.100602, "dry_up": 0.997464, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.171156, "annualized_volatility": 0.672903, "from_high_reference": -0.309322, "from_low_reference": 0.349338 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.4415, "fair_value_reference": 6.60039, "structural_low": 3.365, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.039897, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.071538, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.367583, "worst_return": -0.284304, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.017124, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.042532, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.500502, "worst_return": -0.31643, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.142701, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.00301, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.512747, "worst_return": -0.421156, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.809024, "energy": 45.0144, "activity_lines": [ 3.984667, 4.405455, 4.535048, 4.513333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.83, "volume": 3019863, "typical_volume": 5908848.7, "trend": 4.444, "fair_value": 6.651411, "relative_strength": -21.987889, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.98752, "energy": 54.017701, "activity_lines": [ 3.854667, 4.251636, 4.47281, 4.472667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.32, "volume": 5676764, "typical_volume": 5929846.2, "trend": 4.449667, "fair_value": 6.634634, "relative_strength": -9.413544, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.370372, "energy": 49.460223, "activity_lines": [ 3.966667, 4.210727, 4.460857, 4.464667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.85, "volume": 6295753, "typical_volume": 5673655.55, "trend": 4.447333, "fair_value": 6.616548, "relative_strength": -18.877988, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.638489, "energy": 47.742304, "activity_lines": [ 3.935333, 4.100545, 4.404524, 4.425978 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.075, "volume": 5909872, "typical_volume": 5238848.5, "trend": 4.4415, "fair_value": 6.60039, "relative_strength": -17.772164, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.954293, "energy": 30.53702, "activity_lines": [ 4.001, 4.047273, 4.367762, 4.401957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }