{ "ticker": { "uuid": "36038b11-0785-4ab3-bc77-d517f2de12f8", "symbol": "WSRUS", "name": "UBS MSCI World Socially Responsible UCITS ETF USD acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 73.337, "architecture_energy": 59.366, "architecture_maturity": 64.621, "architecture_confidence": 66.722, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.15, "rotation_up": 48.9, "upward_expansion": 72.38, "deceleration": 85.5, "rotation_down": 27.82, "downward_expansion": 22.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.223332, 36.236999, 35.549095, 34.709311 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 37.029999, "trend_reference": 33.809333, "distance_from_trend": 0.09526, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.050673, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.232252, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.378295, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.150357, "excess_performance": -0.020534, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.09526, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041425, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.232252, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060071, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.033783, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016196, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.150357, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.998509, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36088, "relative_activity": 1.5541, "balance": 1.998509, "dry_up": 1.080405, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018945, "annualized_volatility": 0.126719, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.227378 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.809333, "fair_value_reference": 30.050673, "structural_low": 30.17, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.005563, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.018329, "regime_survival": 0.266667, "best_return": 0.126638, "worst_return": -0.071156, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.060993, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.035555, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.097598, "worst_return": -0.176597, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.103561, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.005196, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.163434, "worst_return": -0.067721, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.026179, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021093, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.036252, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002936, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.002165, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", 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"2026-07-03", "close": 36.895, "volume": 1022, "typical_volume": 21952.1, "trend": 33.1655, "fair_value": 29.671442, "relative_strength": -2.848609, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.30361, "energy": 95.431673, "activity_lines": [ 36.325667, 35.726636, 34.452643, 33.818258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 36.639999, "volume": 29105, "typical_volume": 22892.1, "trend": 33.3185, "fair_value": 29.750993, "relative_strength": -3.003368, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.230323, "energy": 90.117041, "activity_lines": [ 36.521, 35.996727, 34.750714, 34.042419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 35.91, "volume": 24115, "typical_volume": 23564.05, "trend": 33.440166, "fair_value": 29.824679, "relative_strength": -3.437234, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.16931, "energy": 82.099496, "activity_lines": [ 36.373333, 36.069091, 34.959452, 34.209613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.779999, "volume": 22628, "typical_volume": 24246.6, "trend": 33.555166, "fair_value": 29.894391, "relative_strength": -3.482746, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.825828, "energy": 65.077281, "activity_lines": [ 36.167, 36.084272, 35.139333, 34.36057 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.599998, "volume": 17522, "typical_volume": 22431.45, "trend": 33.669333, "fair_value": 29.967083, "relative_strength": -4.468002, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.605087, "energy": 52.567508, "activity_lines": [ 35.934999, 36.037727, 35.285571, 34.492494 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.029999, "volume": 36088, "typical_volume": 23221.15, "trend": 33.809333, "fair_value": 30.050673, "relative_strength": -3.378295, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.33696, "energy": 59.366481, "activity_lines": [ 36.223332, 36.236999, 35.549095, 34.709311 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }