{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3606d050-ec04-4353-8af7-c17b2bb97409", "symbol": "AIRA", "name": "AIRA Capital Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.126, "architecture_energy": 40.061, "architecture_maturity": 77.18, "architecture_confidence": 83.912, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.59, "rotation_up": 24.47, "upward_expansion": 5.09, "deceleration": 58.97, "rotation_down": 46.55, "downward_expansion": 76.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.014667, 1.017455, 1.037905, 1.05271 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.02, "trend_reference": 1.063, "distance_from_trend": -0.040452, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.394487, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.268548, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.403922, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.108696, "excess_performance": -0.083629, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.040452, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040902, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.268548, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012315, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.214039, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015012, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.108696, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.84563, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1000, "relative_activity": 0.015731, "balance": 0.84563, "dry_up": 1.483797, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03997, "annualized_volatility": 0.230512, "from_high_reference": -0.32, "from_low_reference": 0.120879 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.063, "fair_value_reference": 1.394487, "structural_low": 0.92, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": -0.019941, "positive_rate": 0.394737, "directional_follow_through": 0.552632, "median_excess_return": -0.018954, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.26, "worst_return": -0.256757, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.02459, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.015894, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.079268, "worst_return": -0.192053, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.052632, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.087266, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.05, "worst_return": -0.143836, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.201058, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.058792, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": -0.094557, "worst_return": -0.238411, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.052632, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-04-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.128049, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.100529, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.100592, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.165563, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.104839, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027523, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.072, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032258, "active": false 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"activity_lines": [ 1.026, 1.042182, 1.067714, 1.078086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.02, "volume": 4800, "typical_volume": 98195.0, "trend": 1.099333, "fair_value": 1.417308, "relative_strength": -24.678485, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.459571, "energy": 68.128077, "activity_lines": [ 1.02, 1.036, 1.061571, 1.072946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.01, "volume": 359400, "typical_volume": 104325.0, "trend": 1.098667, "fair_value": 1.411346, "relative_strength": -25.363138, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.743657, "energy": 63.400409, "activity_lines": [ 1.013333, 1.028727, 1.054571, 1.067183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.0, "volume": 15500, "typical_volume": 81395.0, "trend": 1.09, "fair_value": 1.405705, "relative_strength": -25.686581, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.10793, "energy": 57.242296, "activity_lines": [ 1.007333, 1.021091, 1.04719, 1.060817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.02, "volume": 1400, "typical_volume": 65510.0, "trend": 1.075667, "fair_value": 1.400192, "relative_strength": -22.469423, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.483551, "energy": 45.160159, "activity_lines": [ 1.011333, 1.019091, 1.042286, 1.056301 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.02, "volume": 1000, "typical_volume": 63570.0, "trend": 1.063, "fair_value": 1.394487, "relative_strength": -21.403922, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.126202, "energy": 40.061097, "activity_lines": [ 1.014667, 1.017455, 1.037905, 1.05271 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }