{ "ticker": { "uuid": "360996a9-0962-44a5-b625-5eb8bedcee27", "symbol": "IOV", "name": "Ion Video Ltd", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 36.303, "architecture_energy": 23.835, "architecture_maturity": 77.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.46, "rotation_up": 26.54, "upward_expansion": 58.34, "deceleration": 88.32, "rotation_down": 30.17, "downward_expansion": 19.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.474333, 0.503273, 0.45831, 0.414538 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.48, "trend_reference": 0.370167, "distance_from_trend": 0.296713, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.215417, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.22824, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 59.161033, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.263158, "excess_performance": 0.199452, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.296713, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.365089, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.22824, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.800885, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.59161, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078939, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.263158, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.763498, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 258224, "relative_activity": 0.511945, "balance": 2.763498, "dry_up": 1.340056, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.215545, "annualized_volatility": 1.392925, "from_high_reference": -0.278195, "from_low_reference": 3.8 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.370167, "fair_value_reference": 0.215417, "structural_low": 0.16, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.302083, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.254941, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.58, "worst_return": 0.076923, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.735417, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.722863, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.270833, "worst_return": 0.2, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 1.725, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 1.700955, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.725, "worst_return": 1.725, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-05-19", "end": "2023-09-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-09-29", "end": "2023-12-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-05", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.5, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.5, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.333333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": 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"2026-07-17", "close": 0.395, "volume": 514286, "typical_volume": 454468.25, "trend": 0.341333, "fair_value": 0.211795, "relative_strength": 49.257095, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.542785, "energy": 55.370313, "activity_lines": [ 0.518667, 0.503545, 0.426238, 0.388065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.535, "volume": 1532681, "typical_volume": 493298.9, "trend": 0.3525, "fair_value": 0.213301, "relative_strength": 96.509145, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.774562, "energy": 44.05657, "activity_lines": [ 0.514667, 0.514545, 0.442548, 0.400559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.45, "volume": 398493, "typical_volume": 496759.85, "trend": 0.360833, "fair_value": 0.214263, "relative_strength": 57.751054, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.461171, "energy": 24.109171, "activity_lines": [ 0.483, 0.506727, 0.449405, 0.406849 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.48, "volume": 258224, "typical_volume": 504397.55, "trend": 0.370167, "fair_value": 0.215417, "relative_strength": 59.161033, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.303111, "energy": 23.835161, "activity_lines": [ 0.474333, 0.503273, 0.45831, 0.414538 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }