{ "ticker": { "uuid": "36117703-84af-49da-a3c6-abc30fca4a72", "symbol": "ALEXP", "name": "One Experience Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 anonyme", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.97, "architecture_energy": 20.488, "architecture_maturity": 59.969, "architecture_confidence": 67.276, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.29, "rotation_up": 24.73, "upward_expansion": 17.5, "deceleration": 45.4, "rotation_down": 32.21, "downward_expansion": 56.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.3706, 0.369645, 0.372455, 0.389635 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.378, "trend_reference": 0.43215, "distance_from_trend": -0.125304, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.579978, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.348251, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -42.090414, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.3, "excess_performance": -0.353311, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.125304, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.218606, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.348251, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040491, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.420904, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087177, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.3, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.928118, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 87844, "relative_activity": 0.828683, "balance": 0.928118, "dry_up": 0.362735, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115181, "annualized_volatility": 0.691999, "from_high_reference": -0.73, "from_low_reference": 0.194313 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.43215, "fair_value_reference": 0.579978, "structural_low": 0.3165, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 44, "median_return": -0.041144, "positive_rate": 0.340909, "directional_follow_through": 0.613636, "median_excess_return": -0.054166, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 3.8, "worst_return": -0.360345, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.052632, "positive_rate": 0.294118, "directional_follow_through": 0.705882, "median_excess_return": -0.084004, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 3.88, "worst_return": -0.382114, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.210526, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.215691, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 2.1, "worst_return": -0.515723, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"typical_volume": 147266.1, "trend": 0.452217, "fair_value": 0.583625, "relative_strength": -45.745855, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.260393, "energy": 35.287617, "activity_lines": [ 0.3621, 0.366927, 0.372702, 0.398749 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.375, "volume": 13818, "typical_volume": 117440.65, "trend": 0.44205, "fair_value": 0.581208, "relative_strength": -42.839905, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.002375, "energy": 31.431709, "activity_lines": [ 0.366833, 0.368373, 0.372143, 0.393768 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.378, "volume": 87844, "typical_volume": 106004.4, "trend": 0.43215, "fair_value": 0.579978, "relative_strength": -42.090414, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.970215, "energy": 20.488221, "activity_lines": [ 0.3706, 0.369645, 0.372455, 0.389635 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }