{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3613460e-c4d3-47bb-b20f-1bf38c3779d1", "symbol": "ISRA", "name": "VANECK ETF TR VANECK ISRAEL ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 50.471, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 32.309, "architecture_energy": 14.395, "architecture_maturity": 19.496, "architecture_confidence": 61.285, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.75, "rotation_up": 34.37, "upward_expansion": 52.59, "deceleration": 63.54, "rotation_down": 24.84, "downward_expansion": 23.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 65.129173, 64.83014, 65.56384, 65.171175 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 66.85, "trend_reference": 64.572467, "distance_from_trend": 0.035271, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 45.729783, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.461848, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.184364, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.063276, "excess_performance": -0.062348, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.035271, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037839, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.461848, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.159486, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.011844, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.121534, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.063276, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.756742, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8954, "relative_activity": 0.274513, "balance": 0.756742, "dry_up": 0.541637, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047464, "annualized_volatility": 0.253983, "from_high_reference": -0.09111, "from_low_reference": 0.406312 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 64.572467, "fair_value_reference": 45.729783, "structural_low": 57.73, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.039238, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.111111, "median_excess_return": -0.036272, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.051072, "worst_return": -0.115509, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.072086, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.07442, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.057997, "worst_return": -0.181264, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.088385, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.078764, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.214557, "worst_return": -0.23107, "sufficient": false }, { 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"active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.189709, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.092478, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.07687, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007853, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.096878, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": 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64.28272, "fair_value": 45.325219, "relative_strength": -0.544241, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.020398, "energy": 8.230049, "activity_lines": [ 64.399713, 64.813591, 65.504477, 65.029742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 64.0564, "volume": 14818, "typical_volume": 34112.8, "trend": 64.431467, "fair_value": 45.517429, "relative_strength": -1.774245, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.373008, "energy": 11.23903, "activity_lines": [ 64.351107, 64.522573, 65.407645, 65.015141 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 66.85, "volume": 8954, "typical_volume": 32617.8, "trend": 64.572467, "fair_value": 45.729783, "relative_strength": -1.184364, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.309431, "energy": 14.395332, "activity_lines": [ 65.129173, 64.83014, 65.56384, 65.171175 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }