{ "ticker": { "uuid": "36182664-2467-40f8-926b-c06cc8197be3", "symbol": "NTRB", "name": "Nutriband Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.935, "architecture_energy": 46.522, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 92.196, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.44, "rotation_up": 26.35, "upward_expansion": 7.35, "deceleration": 57.85, "rotation_down": 49.34, "downward_expansion": 80.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.004667, 3.031273, 3.250419, 3.445449 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.11, "trend_reference": 3.736187, "distance_from_trend": -0.1676, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.191344, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.257995, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -43.323305, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.285057, "excess_performance": -0.472511, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.1676, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.140122, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.257995, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.164567, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.433233, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004408, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.285057, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.850705, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36120, "relative_activity": 0.713948, "balance": 0.850705, "dry_up": 0.975096, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.105157, "annualized_volatility": 0.461828, "from_high_reference": -0.639458, "from_low_reference": 0.110714 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.736187, "fair_value_reference": 4.191344, "structural_low": 2.8, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.027544, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.026209, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.891041, "worst_return": -0.475291, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.080442, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.112082, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.497585, "worst_return": -0.417391, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.141534, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.229139, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.727053, "worst_return": -0.463478, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.208861, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.003029, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.794479, "worst_return": -0.623478, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.462107, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.18626, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.128964, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.007029, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.165299, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.127346, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.093548, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.405109, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.148601, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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3.534314, 3.731703 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.96, "volume": 60447, "typical_volume": 55105.0, "trend": 3.93752, "fair_value": 4.193537, "relative_strength": -50.66241, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.436633, "energy": 78.912367, "activity_lines": [ 3.027333, 3.199818, 3.460669, 3.664035 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.11, "volume": 82480, "typical_volume": 57300.0, "trend": 3.89152, "fair_value": 4.194037, "relative_strength": -45.000323, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.302427, "energy": 61.448559, "activity_lines": [ 3.039333, 3.157455, 3.408309, 3.610647 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.98, "volume": 51411, "typical_volume": 55705.55, "trend": 3.830853, "fair_value": 4.190575, "relative_strength": -45.045966, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.664488, "energy": 53.816217, "activity_lines": [ 3.026667, 3.103091, 3.349901, 3.551839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.85, "volume": 27317, "typical_volume": 53712.65, "trend": 3.778187, "fair_value": 4.188998, "relative_strength": -46.53053, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.446472, "energy": 55.406394, "activity_lines": [ 2.965333, 3.036364, 3.285684, 3.488558 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.11, "volume": 36120, "typical_volume": 50591.95, "trend": 3.736187, "fair_value": 4.191344, "relative_strength": -43.323305, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.934513, "energy": 46.521799, "activity_lines": [ 3.004667, 3.031273, 3.250419, 3.445449 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }