{ "ticker": { "uuid": "361ab220-e93d-4cee-9c1f-867049d28181", "symbol": "VOLT", "name": "WisdomTree Battery Solutions UCITS ETF - USD Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 75.332, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -30.992, "architecture_energy": 69.473, "architecture_maturity": 10.111, "architecture_confidence": 76.496, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.59, "rotation_up": 14.06, "upward_expansion": 31.43, "deceleration": 49.08, "rotation_down": 75.09, "downward_expansion": 61.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.1424, 43.840109, 46.392309, 46.170286 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 43.202, "trend_reference": 45.542033, "distance_from_trend": -0.051382, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.147164, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.303339, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.441692, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.07201, "excess_performance": 0.018699, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.051382, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044033, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.303339, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.320402, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.044417, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.401167, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.07201, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.561265, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 193, "relative_activity": 0.215294, "balance": 0.561265, "dry_up": 1.059736, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055541, "annualized_volatility": 0.296369, "from_high_reference": -0.205919, "from_low_reference": 0.381801 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 45.542033, "fair_value_reference": 33.147164, "structural_low": 39.880001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.064949, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.068302, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.10986, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.304366, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.07741, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.043389, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.122822, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038185, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-10-27", "close": 27.709, "volume": 640, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-11-03", "close": 28.844, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": 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41.150002, "volume": 403, "typical_volume": 942.15, "trend": 45.525333, "fair_value": 33.077821, "relative_strength": -6.46592, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.72477, "energy": 74.383896, "activity_lines": [ 42.089067, 44.458309, 46.7396, 46.320178 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.202, "volume": 193, "typical_volume": 896.45, "trend": 45.542033, "fair_value": 33.147164, "relative_strength": -4.441692, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.991503, "energy": 69.473008, "activity_lines": [ 42.1424, 43.840109, 46.392309, 46.170286 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }