{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3625bb62-cc5d-4682-b460-62d831393a59", "symbol": "IHVV", "name": "iShares S&P 500 AUD Hedged ETF", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 69.283, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.64, "architecture_energy": 64.157, "architecture_maturity": 34.764, "architecture_confidence": 89.213, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.92, "rotation_up": 60.86, "upward_expansion": 85.21, "deceleration": 49.24, "rotation_down": 20.67, "downward_expansion": 11.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 65.959998, 65.562019, 65.139719, 64.415014 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 67.419998, "trend_reference": 63.675735, "distance_from_trend": 0.058802, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 53.555675, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.258877, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.366864, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.092353, "excess_performance": 0.028647, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.058802, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017434, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.258877, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012402, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.023669, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042267, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.092353, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.078547, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 659330, "relative_activity": 1.062158, "balance": 2.078547, "dry_up": 1.534281, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01844, "annualized_volatility": 0.130808, "from_high_reference": -0.0078, "from_low_reference": 0.17293 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 63.675735, "fair_value_reference": 53.555675, "structural_low": 57.48, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": 0.009457, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.008078, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.065716, "worst_return": -0.092095, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.047699, "positive_rate": 0.785714, "directional_follow_through": 0.785714, "median_excess_return": 0.01118, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.097992, "worst_return": -0.080576, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.061096, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.051719, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.148199, "worst_return": -0.18171, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.639914, "energy": 64.156704, "activity_lines": [ 65.959998, 65.562019, 65.139719, 64.415014 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }