{ "ticker": { "uuid": "362f7d1d-da22-4d89-8b76-e9d872b8ca34", "symbol": "IPO", "name": "IP Group Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 64.684, "architecture_energy": 33.738, "architecture_maturity": 37.548, "architecture_confidence": 74.119, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.23, "rotation_up": 47.6, "upward_expansion": 76.46, "deceleration": 63.03, "rotation_down": 25.97, "downward_expansion": 5.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.6636, 0.658364, 0.651967, 0.630868 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.704, "trend_reference": 0.60735, "distance_from_trend": 0.159134, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.522894, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.346353, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 8.85761, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.220104, "excess_performance": 0.168869, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.159134, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032294, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.346353, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.083586, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.088576, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005208, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.220104, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.74924, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8340580, "relative_activity": 0.685532, "balance": 0.74924, "dry_up": 0.732907, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081187, "annualized_volatility": 0.37582, "from_high_reference": -0.044776, "from_low_reference": 0.466667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.60735, "fair_value_reference": 0.522894, "structural_low": 0.48, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.042802, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.00739, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.108987, "worst_return": -0.241142, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.117647, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.124986, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.10325, "worst_return": -0.141732, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.003824, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.069694, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.141732, "worst_return": -0.307276, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.068309, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.09387, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.05151, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.154876, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.034942, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.126761, 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"volume": 6620938, "typical_volume": 14688045.65, "trend": 0.598483, "fair_value": 0.521497, "relative_strength": 2.635763, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.76114, "energy": 24.777713, "activity_lines": [ 0.652067, 0.654636, 0.6386, 0.618718 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.664, "volume": 8161406, "typical_volume": 13998458.75, "trend": 0.601383, "fair_value": 0.521908, "relative_strength": 4.157266, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.360122, "energy": 31.774785, "activity_lines": [ 0.6564, 0.655927, 0.643831, 0.622945 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.623, "volume": 12544961, "typical_volume": 13686675.25, "trend": 0.602817, "fair_value": 0.522215, "relative_strength": -3.349184, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.647478, "energy": 18.693319, "activity_lines": [ 0.645933, 0.649345, 0.644357, 0.62434 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.704, "volume": 8340580, "typical_volume": 12166583.85, "trend": 0.60735, "fair_value": 0.522894, "relative_strength": 8.85761, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.684367, "energy": 33.737773, "activity_lines": [ 0.6636, 0.658364, 0.651967, 0.630868 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }