{ "ticker": { "uuid": "36325e54-af6f-4a6a-a2a5-04f63c5d3dd8", "symbol": "601899", "name": "Zijin Mining Group Company Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 48.58, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 15.599, "architecture_energy": 26.96, "architecture_maturity": 75.887, "architecture_confidence": 59.069, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.46, "rotation_up": 50.16, "upward_expansion": 36.01, "deceleration": 44.44, "rotation_down": 14.11, "downward_expansion": 42.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.434668, 30.522852, 30.504134, 31.483083 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 35.150002, "trend_reference": 33.126518, "distance_from_trend": 0.061084, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.530824, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.71206, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 14.462514, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.124315, "excess_performance": -0.081111, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.061084, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013722, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.71206, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094927, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.144625, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01701, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.124315, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.14149, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1534248360, "relative_activity": 1.272871, "balance": 1.14149, "dry_up": 1.273447, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08545, "annualized_volatility": 0.438284, "from_high_reference": -0.217846, "from_low_reference": 0.816454 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.126518, "fair_value_reference": 20.530824, "structural_low": 24.860001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.029102, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": 0.049193, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.246231, "worst_return": -0.133841, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.166464, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.168974, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.501892, "worst_return": -0.126214, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.009561, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.020565, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.366782, "worst_return": -0.09959, "sufficient": false 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"volume": 1417549256, "typical_volume": 1201893497.45, "trend": 33.110185, "fair_value": 20.117134, "relative_strength": -1.022057, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.191047, "energy": 52.918566, "activity_lines": [ 27.706315, 28.169729, 29.91188, 31.465484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.51, "volume": 1985087926, "typical_volume": 1215208677.35, "trend": 33.123185, "fair_value": 20.248285, "relative_strength": 7.767854, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.183237, "energy": 27.440381, "activity_lines": [ 28.992667, 28.662694, 29.925806, 31.362246 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.950001, "volume": 1202884087, "typical_volume": 1216537570.35, "trend": 33.103851, "fair_value": 20.38235, "relative_strength": 11.291481, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.089423, "energy": 17.334468, "activity_lines": [ 30.608667, 29.41499, 30.103494, 31.351073 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.150002, "volume": 1534248360, "typical_volume": 1205344815.75, "trend": 33.126518, "fair_value": 20.530824, "relative_strength": 14.462514, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 15.599228, "energy": 26.959713, "activity_lines": [ 32.434668, 30.522852, 30.504134, 31.483083 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }