{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3637939f-5360-4084-b7ed-f4415c5ca418", "symbol": "600499", "name": "Keda Industrial Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 69.372, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.098, "architecture_energy": 23.008, "architecture_maturity": 38.891, "architecture_confidence": 79.533, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.7, "rotation_up": 26.87, "upward_expansion": 16.15, "deceleration": 42.08, "rotation_down": 33.23, "downward_expansion": 61.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.152667, 15.01056, 15.610214, 16.01371 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 14.26, "trend_reference": 16.275266, "distance_from_trend": -0.123824, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.904046, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.307771, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.765511, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.193895, "excess_performance": -0.150691, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.123824, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037498, "read": "Rising" 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13.33, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.032947, "positive_rate": 0.478261, "directional_follow_through": 0.521739, "median_excess_return": -0.018007, "regime_survival": 0.826087, "best_return": 0.209117, "worst_return": -0.134636, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.028173, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.006263, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.53306, "worst_return": -0.278831, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.077994, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.154289, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.111843, "worst_return": -0.270616, "sufficient": true 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"typical_volume": 124946117.7, "trend": 16.1806, "fair_value": 10.84187, "relative_strength": 9.186999, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.803283, "energy": 31.403332, "activity_lines": [ 14.908, 14.919764, 15.789672, 16.122927 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.49, "volume": 149128353, "typical_volume": 125568331.45, "trend": 16.262266, "fair_value": 10.879322, "relative_strength": 17.138921, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.07143, "energy": 16.777731, "activity_lines": [ 15.505333, 15.167068, 15.8033, 16.142888 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.26, "volume": 273855891, "typical_volume": 132061950.5, "trend": 16.275266, "fair_value": 10.904046, "relative_strength": -1.765511, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.09751, "energy": 23.00774, "activity_lines": [ 15.152667, 15.01056, 15.610214, 16.01371 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }