{ "ticker": { "uuid": "36396a10-ecbd-48a5-86f1-7476e70f14bb", "symbol": "600782", "name": "Xinyu Iron & Steel Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -31.64, "architecture_energy": 29.588, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 73.907, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.6, "rotation_up": 33.55, "upward_expansion": 21.94, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 19.61, "downward_expansion": 55.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.818, 2.733091, 2.763818, 2.962245 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 2.78, "trend_reference": 3.249741, "distance_from_trend": -0.144547, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.652257, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.238827, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.353945, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.31358, "excess_performance": -0.270376, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.144547, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.116856, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.238827, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05008, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.223539, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070441, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.31358, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.577422, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 208710790, "relative_activity": 1.133348, "balance": 0.577422, "dry_up": 1.339944, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064823, "annualized_volatility": 0.361588, "from_high_reference": -0.373874, "from_low_reference": 0.125506 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.249741, "fair_value_reference": 3.652257, "structural_low": 2.47, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.00563, "positive_rate": 0.409091, "directional_follow_through": 0.590909, "median_excess_return": 0.003358, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.236301, "worst_return": -0.12069, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.023094, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.044654, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.253086, "worst_return": -0.202222, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.02805, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.028942, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.182099, "worst_return": -0.278772, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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-53.436971, "energy": 56.998046, "activity_lines": [ 2.649333, 2.638156, 2.810564, 3.05626 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.75, "volume": 252308195, "typical_volume": 200291197.6, "trend": 3.317075, "fair_value": 3.66249, "relative_strength": -22.273259, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.671234, "energy": 48.794763, "activity_lines": [ 2.696667, 2.655248, 2.780791, 3.017309 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.97, "volume": 243033505, "typical_volume": 194372409.25, "trend": 3.286408, "fair_value": 3.658105, "relative_strength": -15.57661, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.829997, "energy": 30.935814, "activity_lines": [ 2.805333, 2.714055, 2.778638, 2.994917 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.78, "volume": 208710790, "typical_volume": 184154177.05, "trend": 3.249741, "fair_value": 3.652257, "relative_strength": -22.353945, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.640065, "energy": 29.58781, "activity_lines": [ 2.818, 2.733091, 2.763818, 2.962245 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }