{ "ticker": { "uuid": "363b0c82-d03e-4218-b4f9-4bd5d249c10c", "symbol": "CIRC", "name": "Circle S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.82, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 56.277, "architecture_energy": 34.258, "architecture_maturity": 52.123, "architecture_confidence": 94.869, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.5, "rotation_up": 38.47, "upward_expansion": 66.67, "deceleration": 90.04, "rotation_down": 28.46, "downward_expansion": 13.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.566667, 13.564545, 13.433095, 12.769763 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 13.75, "trend_reference": 11.715333, "distance_from_trend": 0.173676, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.115256, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.69434, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 17.274014, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.527778, "excess_performance": 0.356886, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.173676, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.174784, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.69434, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.197012, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.17274, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.286034, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.527778, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.945758, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9220, "relative_activity": 0.37177, "balance": 1.945758, "dry_up": 1.191195, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067692, "annualized_volatility": 0.290815, "from_high_reference": -0.101307, "from_low_reference": 1.040059 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.715333, "fair_value_reference": 8.115256, "structural_low": 8.62, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.016949, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": 0.012428, "regime_survival": 0.529412, "best_return": 0.17284, "worst_return": -0.136612, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.072448, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.008735, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.209877, "worst_return": -0.084211, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.140496, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.064921, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.525424, "worst_return": -0.056757, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.07716, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.159879, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.319008, "worst_return": 0.065163, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.139896, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.062791, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0725, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.207386, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.178241, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.094595, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.074405, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.07513, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.148459, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.070218, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.477778, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01083, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018315, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01476, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 5.15, "volume": 46860, "typical_volume": 38709.0, "trend": 4.641333, "fair_value": 3.642372, "relative_strength": 13.385326, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", 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"relative_strength": 23.370877, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.609591, "energy": 49.514581, "activity_lines": [ 13.603333, 13.574545, 12.898571, 12.010022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 13.65, "volume": 16360, "typical_volume": 37074.9, "trend": 11.010333, "fair_value": 7.906603, "relative_strength": 22.372407, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.466295, "energy": 46.706967, "activity_lines": [ 13.676667, 13.581818, 13.055333, 12.192086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.35, "volume": 9251, "typical_volume": 35788.45, "trend": 11.188667, "fair_value": 7.956603, "relative_strength": 20.45729, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.022388, "energy": 41.3113, "activity_lines": [ 13.58, 13.526364, 13.162048, 12.343032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.4, "volume": 15774, "typical_volume": 34547.65, "trend": 11.362667, "fair_value": 8.006603, "relative_strength": 20.256504, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.496004, "energy": 36.259446, "activity_lines": [ 13.496667, 13.491818, 13.255, 12.485699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.55, "volume": 83923, "typical_volume": 25741.8, "trend": 11.534333, "fair_value": 8.06109, "relative_strength": 19.859694, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.890897, "energy": 30.438656, "activity_lines": [ 13.493333, 13.507273, 13.342619, 12.626817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.75, "volume": 9220, "typical_volume": 24800.3, "trend": 11.715333, "fair_value": 8.115256, "relative_strength": 17.274014, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.276651, "energy": 34.257781, "activity_lines": [ 13.566667, 13.564545, 13.433095, 12.769763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }