{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3641026f-1057-496a-88b9-ba544c4a9f26", "symbol": "GUM", "name": "GUMTREE FPO [GUM]", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -91.302, "architecture_energy": 76.362, "architecture_maturity": 82.551, "architecture_confidence": 86.802, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.08, "rotation_up": 26.19, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 61.0, "rotation_down": 63.25, "downward_expansion": 83.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.086667, 0.089091, 0.099405, 0.105806 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.08, "trend_reference": 0.1125, "distance_from_trend": -0.288889, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.157506, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.492084, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -40.077216, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.304348, "excess_performance": -0.368053, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.288889, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.115334, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.492084, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.205299, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.400772, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.390135, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.304348, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 48999, "relative_activity": 2.990789, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 3.431375, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054808, "annualized_volatility": 0.330312, "from_high_reference": -0.659574, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.1125, "fair_value_reference": 0.157506, "structural_low": 0.08, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 43, "median_return": -0.014493, "positive_rate": 0.325581, "directional_follow_through": 0.511628, "median_excess_return": -0.036334, "regime_survival": 0.883721, "best_return": 0.8, "worst_return": -0.296296, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.037619, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.032602, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.356722, "worst_return": -0.316666, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.180556, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.154307, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.022463, "worst_return": -0.333334, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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0.1155, "fair_value": 0.160551, "relative_strength": -29.211595, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.295038, "energy": 68.474247, "activity_lines": [ 0.09, 0.093545, 0.104381, 0.109645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.09, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 14864.35, "trend": 0.114, "fair_value": 0.159045, "relative_strength": -30.68453, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.869125, "energy": 67.783202, "activity_lines": [ 0.09, 0.091909, 0.102286, 0.108 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.08, "volume": 48999, "typical_volume": 16383.3, "trend": 0.1125, "fair_value": 0.157506, "relative_strength": -40.077216, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -91.301562, "energy": 76.362283, "activity_lines": [ 0.086667, 0.089091, 0.099405, 0.105806 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }