{ "ticker": { "uuid": "364624e1-c31b-47d1-bd45-4852d1603abc", "symbol": "IBDZ", "name": "ISHARES IBONDS DEC 2034 TERM CORPORATE ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 52.502, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.067, "architecture_energy": 62.192, "architecture_maturity": 4.603, "architecture_confidence": 85.269, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.48, "rotation_up": 10.22, "upward_expansion": 13.78, "deceleration": 37.41, "rotation_down": 69.68, "downward_expansion": 89.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.568723, 25.663423, 25.735142, 25.774414 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 25.64, "trend_reference": 25.834664, "distance_from_trend": -0.007535, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.794895, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.034084, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.401444, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.01365, "excess_performance": -0.139275, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.007535, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000782, "read": "Falling" 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25.42045, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"down", "direction": -68.873505, "energy": 58.086016, "activity_lines": [ 25.650757, 25.737621, 25.77649, 25.812356 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.472342, "volume": 639807, "typical_volume": 787540.4, "trend": 25.844045, "fair_value": 24.787546, "relative_strength": -9.198182, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.623763, "energy": 67.443642, "activity_lines": [ 25.563955, 25.683219, 25.747411, 25.787578 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.64, "volume": 365392, "typical_volume": 764750.4, "trend": 25.834664, "fair_value": 24.794895, "relative_strength": -11.401444, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.067404, "energy": 62.1919, "activity_lines": [ 25.568723, 25.663423, 25.735142, 25.774414 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }