{ "ticker": { "uuid": "36519a9d-f18a-43fb-be4a-dfc728c43d3e", "symbol": "2719", "name": "TSG Star Travel Corp.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -77.28, "architecture_energy": 83.437, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.621, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.12, "rotation_up": 10.52, "upward_expansion": 19.11, "deceleration": 37.18, "rotation_down": 81.1, "downward_expansion": 97.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.733333, 22.678182, 23.951428, 24.811505 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 21.0, "trend_reference": 26.028333, "distance_from_trend": -0.193187, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 44.765705, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.530891, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -50.973208, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.291737, "excess_performance": -0.733109, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.193187, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099366, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.530891, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048151, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.509732, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003772, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.291737, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.060822, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 50000, "relative_activity": 0.279578, "balance": 0.060822, "dry_up": 0.693502, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0837, "annualized_volatility": 0.242407, "from_high_reference": -0.476961, "from_low_reference": 0.007194 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.028333, "fair_value_reference": 44.765705, "structural_low": 20.85, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.031082, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.678571, "median_excess_return": -0.060521, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.452431, "worst_return": -0.141177, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.054546, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.038079, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.634615, "worst_return": -0.241477, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.086207, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.284334, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.545455, "worst_return": -0.215859, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.85, "volume": 1314614, "typical_volume": 166837.0, "trend": 27.175, "fair_value": 46.196795, "relative_strength": -45.641642, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.271415, "energy": 44.552343, "activity_lines": [ 24.209999, 24.580909, 25.426905, 26.09957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.65, "volume": 246106, "typical_volume": 175638.5, "trend": 26.898333, "fair_value": 45.869551, "relative_strength": -48.353443, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.974854, "energy": 55.721559, "activity_lines": [ 23.63, 24.172727, 25.112857, 25.807634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.75, "volume": 130000, "typical_volume": 178759.2, "trend": 26.613333, "fair_value": 45.492949, "relative_strength": -48.610659, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.842311, "energy": 66.990841, "activity_lines": [ 22.92, 23.653636, 24.733571, 25.475484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.65, "volume": 70000, "typical_volume": 179558.7, "trend": 26.328333, "fair_value": 45.104167, "relative_strength": -48.914314, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.75781, "energy": 76.005279, "activity_lines": [ 22.346667, 23.190909, 24.363809, 25.155269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 21.0, "volume": 50000, "typical_volume": 178840.85, "trend": 26.028333, "fair_value": 44.765705, "relative_strength": -50.973208, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.279653, "energy": 83.436727, "activity_lines": [ 21.733333, 22.678182, 23.951428, 24.811505 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }