{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3652d0a7-0d35-48e8-89c6-82f5993afaf7", "symbol": "600088", "name": "China Television Media, Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.085, "architecture_energy": 51.716, "architecture_maturity": 49.388, "architecture_confidence": 93.325, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.09, "rotation_up": 22.21, "upward_expansion": 8.16, "deceleration": 59.18, "rotation_down": 56.46, "downward_expansion": 81.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.318712, 11.463572, 12.772452, 13.510631 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 11.67, "trend_reference": 14.588695, "distance_from_trend": -0.200066, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.154637, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.277607, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.254176, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.345118, "excess_performance": -0.301914, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.200066, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092931, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.277607, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.260527, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.242542, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.138174, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.345118, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.55628, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24948994, "relative_activity": 0.767367, "balance": 0.55628, "dry_up": 0.821251, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.12548, "annualized_volatility": 0.503203, "from_high_reference": -0.416792, "from_low_reference": 0.108342 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.588695, "fair_value_reference": 16.154637, "structural_low": 10.52924, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.031123, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.001276, "regime_survival": 0.681818, "best_return": 0.272169, "worst_return": -0.128723, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.011906, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 1.088141, "worst_return": -0.151916, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.112839, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.060852, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.639423, "worst_return": -0.153191, "sufficient": true }, { 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10.649004, "volume": 28433408, "typical_volume": 31740017.8, "trend": 14.891028, "fair_value": 16.18835, "relative_strength": -29.777596, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.705237, "energy": 78.235627, "activity_lines": [ 11.025595, 11.806876, 13.194651, 13.92999 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.46, "volume": 21874855, "typical_volume": 32005498.9, "trend": 14.739028, "fair_value": 16.171427, "relative_strength": -24.190962, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.87098, "energy": 56.82719, "activity_lines": [ 11.154872, 11.577769, 12.964932, 13.708633 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.67, "volume": 24948994, "typical_volume": 32512476.6, "trend": 14.588695, "fair_value": 16.154637, "relative_strength": -24.254176, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.085287, "energy": 51.716275, "activity_lines": [ 11.318712, 11.463572, 12.772452, 13.510631 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }