{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3652dc3c-b135-492f-94f5-dd5928c56b3a", "symbol": "300770", "name": "Guangdong Southern New Media Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.117, "architecture_energy": 29.904, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 81.61, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.2, "rotation_up": 27.72, "upward_expansion": 22.06, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 30.44, "downward_expansion": 60.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.971999, 33.517818, 34.427451, 35.906168 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 34.02, "trend_reference": 38.211944, "distance_from_trend": -0.109702, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 35.821317, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.050286, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.158764, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.24344, "excess_performance": -0.25084, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.109702, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072022, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.050286, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110429, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.181588, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056956, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.24344, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.385269, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11202266, "relative_activity": 1.256705, "balance": 0.385269, "dry_up": 1.341448, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05422, "annualized_volatility": 0.241542, "from_high_reference": -0.326081, "from_low_reference": 0.083439 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.211944, "fair_value_reference": 35.821317, "structural_low": 31.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.003771, "positive_rate": 0.56, "directional_follow_through": 0.44, "median_excess_return": -0.001964, "regime_survival": 0.72, "best_return": 0.375268, "worst_return": -0.14439, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.150621, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": 0.053086, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.321656, "worst_return": -0.18496, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.211557, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.078976, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.776951, "worst_return": -0.221239, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.743701, "energy": 65.001298, "activity_lines": [ 32.828666, 33.289431, 35.027995, 36.801423 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.849998, "volume": 11360225, "typical_volume": 9076500.85, "trend": 38.687898, "fair_value": 35.843403, "relative_strength": -18.969279, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.925021, "energy": 60.692951, "activity_lines": [ 32.837332, 33.082181, 34.674353, 36.406999 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.369999, "volume": 12519135, "typical_volume": 8934523.65, "trend": 38.464981, "fair_value": 35.831807, "relative_strength": -10.985495, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.973324, "energy": 40.785214, "activity_lines": [ 33.746665, 33.418908, 34.602524, 36.192941 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.02, "volume": 11202266, "typical_volume": 8913998.1, "trend": 38.211944, "fair_value": 35.821317, "relative_strength": -18.158764, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.117087, "energy": 29.903599, "activity_lines": [ 33.971999, 33.517818, 34.427451, 35.906168 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }