{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3654c1d6-9174-4426-adde-fb2eb5108a8c", "symbol": "300261", "name": "ABA Chemicals Corporation", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.869, "architecture_energy": 26.065, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 71.093, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.74, "rotation_up": 29.45, "upward_expansion": 21.74, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 23.61, "downward_expansion": 58.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.043333, 4.850182, 5.042048, 5.419312 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.33, "trend_reference": 5.952333, "distance_from_trend": -0.104553, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.746492, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.20996, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.919574, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.277778, "excess_performance": -0.285178, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.104553, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117824, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.20996, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060689, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.219196, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0991, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.277778, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.959371, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 123217849, "relative_activity": 1.965285, "balance": 1.959371, "dry_up": 2.189592, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086448, "annualized_volatility": 0.317169, "from_high_reference": -0.390857, "from_low_reference": 0.248244 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.952333, "fair_value_reference": 6.746492, "structural_low": 4.27, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.037093, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.024005, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.259095, "worst_return": -0.145973, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.048961, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.038366, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.204844, "worst_return": -0.262821, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.13926, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.134961, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.370794, "worst_return": -0.354599, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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6.113333, "fair_value": 6.819471, "relative_strength": -33.289264, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.445289, "energy": 66.560408, "activity_lines": [ 4.517333, 4.659091, 5.150333, 5.59643 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.93, "volume": 105907574, "typical_volume": 58228336.15, "trend": 6.053, "fair_value": 6.794711, "relative_strength": -27.041581, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.412874, "energy": 60.12131, "activity_lines": [ 4.655333, 4.676, 5.083476, 5.520086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.16, "volume": 248270137, "typical_volume": 63283512.75, "trend": 5.999, "fair_value": 6.76977, "relative_strength": -21.644216, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.412856, "energy": 40.052366, "activity_lines": [ 4.848, 4.746182, 5.049524, 5.462473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.33, "volume": 123217849, "typical_volume": 62697196.05, "trend": 5.952333, "fair_value": 6.746492, "relative_strength": -21.919574, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.869125, "energy": 26.06488, "activity_lines": [ 5.043333, 4.850182, 5.042048, 5.419312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }