{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3657213c-9f53-4cb7-bc46-b858c0c68139", "symbol": "SPKL", "name": "Spark I Acquisition Corp. Class A Ordinary Share", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 55.258, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 18.251, "architecture_energy": 16.443, "architecture_maturity": 40.576, "architecture_confidence": 75.251, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.81, "rotation_up": 20.88, "upward_expansion": 48.36, "deceleration": 89.99, "rotation_down": 37.52, "downward_expansion": 21.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.8, 12.062591, 12.034417, 11.891543 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 11.68, "trend_reference": 11.71225, "distance_from_trend": -0.002754, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.897057, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.071849, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.48142, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.022767, "excess_performance": -0.164687, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.002754, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027455, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.071849, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022777, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.114814, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014015, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.022767, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.160499, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 119118, "relative_activity": 0.41536, "balance": 1.160499, "dry_up": 0.648222, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080486, "annualized_volatility": 0.252586, "from_high_reference": -0.161522, "from_low_reference": 0.07156 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.71225, "fair_value_reference": 10.897057, "structural_low": 11.19, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.000357, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.00225, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.017812, "worst_return": -0.007945, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.029985, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.053925, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.047452, "worst_return": 0.012519, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.060564, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.105453, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.060564, "worst_return": 0.060564, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.038208, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.011629, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.004409, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.02799, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.021776, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-12-01", "close": 10.12, "volume": 514177, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-12-08", "close": 10.12, "volume": 307570, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-12-15", "close": 10.12, "volume": 84124, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { 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"2026-06-05", "close": 11.5725, "volume": 575965, "typical_volume": 84480.2, "trend": 11.408513, "fair_value": 10.803978, "relative_strength": -12.161416, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.643124, "energy": 56.103483, "activity_lines": [ 11.8215, 11.714818, 11.569, 11.499767 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 13.16, "volume": 1731911, "typical_volume": 170931.0, "trend": 11.472537, "fair_value": 10.821692, "relative_strength": -2.117438, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 92.814701, "energy": 65.94361, "activity_lines": [ 12.258, 11.996409, 11.728655, 11.612766 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 12.65, "volume": 611246, "typical_volume": 201282.95, "trend": 11.521203, "fair_value": 10.835337, "relative_strength": -8.012083, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.4936, "energy": 56.987781, "activity_lines": [ 12.433167, 12.152, 11.83131, 11.688732 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 12.15, "volume": 468708, "typical_volume": 224435.8, "trend": 11.554537, "fair_value": 10.845075, "relative_strength": -7.218693, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.058026, "energy": 46.951596, "activity_lines": [ 12.393, 12.193227, 11.880012, 11.729299 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 12.95, "volume": 335053, "typical_volume": 241084.8, "trend": 11.614537, "fair_value": 10.860552, "relative_strength": -1.782554, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.045627, "energy": 54.715647, "activity_lines": [ 12.612833, 12.366091, 12.001429, 11.819329 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 12.1, "volume": 209226, "typical_volume": 251500.7, "trend": 11.646203, "fair_value": 10.869599, "relative_strength": -9.574432, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.347139, "energy": 36.7384, "activity_lines": [ 12.480667, 12.356045, 12.034417, 11.850649 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.12, "volume": 212185, "typical_volume": 261872.55, "trend": 11.673537, "fair_value": 10.87866, "relative_strength": -5.28477, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.244155, "energy": 23.478927, "activity_lines": [ 12.32, 12.336727, 12.065738, 11.881217 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.94, "volume": 211628, "typical_volume": 272227.6, "trend": 11.695203, "fair_value": 10.886296, "relative_strength": -4.985411, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.134708, "energy": 17.899629, "activity_lines": [ 12.168667, 12.278682, 12.076345, 11.898408 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.61, "volume": 200665, "typical_volume": 282188.1, "trend": 11.701203, "fair_value": 10.891465, "relative_strength": -7.821221, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.564542, "energy": 14.950429, "activity_lines": [ 11.954667, 12.160273, 12.052667, 11.892911 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.68, "volume": 119118, "typical_volume": 286782.8, "trend": 11.71225, "fair_value": 10.897057, "relative_strength": -11.48142, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.251022, "energy": 16.443215, "activity_lines": [ 11.8, 12.062591, 12.034417, 11.891543 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }