{ "ticker": { "uuid": "365a8f65-404f-4f48-84f8-7a508e0708fe", "symbol": "FEUZ", "name": "First Trust Eurozone AlphaDEX UCITS ETF Class A Shares", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 75.791, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 77.669, "architecture_energy": 59.068, "architecture_maturity": 65.637, "architecture_confidence": 71.002, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.22, "rotation_up": 55.03, "upward_expansion": 82.49, "deceleration": 66.68, "rotation_down": 27.57, "downward_expansion": 9.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 65.666666, 65.454182, 64.862809, 63.855355 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 66.419998, "trend_reference": 62.630666, "distance_from_trend": 0.060503, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 47.264359, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.405287, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.847085, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.087604, "excess_performance": -0.083287, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.060503, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051379, "read": "Rising" 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55.669998, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": 0.000953, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.002834, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.07351, "worst_return": -0.085438, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.021117, "positive_rate": 0.785714, "directional_follow_through": 0.785714, "median_excess_return": -0.008872, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.157962, "worst_return": -0.062977, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.049219, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.031918, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.185112, "worst_return": -0.17166, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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}, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 65.269997, "volume": 3616, "typical_volume": 9466.05, "trend": 62.131, "fair_value": 46.892244, "relative_strength": -2.077366, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.005783, "energy": 49.517621, "activity_lines": [ 65.097333, 65.108182, 64.32819, 63.365548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 65.690002, "volume": 3353, "typical_volume": 9547.25, "trend": 62.387, "fair_value": 47.074135, "relative_strength": -2.112208, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.409136, "energy": 48.964639, "activity_lines": [ 65.300667, 65.226728, 64.578333, 63.595161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 66.419998, "volume": 1213, "typical_volume": 9420.95, "trend": 62.630666, "fair_value": 47.264359, "relative_strength": -3.847085, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.668975, "energy": 59.068442, "activity_lines": [ 65.666666, 65.454182, 64.862809, 63.855355 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }