{ "ticker": { "uuid": "365bc570-3b7f-48ff-b611-28e1e25dc635", "symbol": "LOWD", "name": "BNP PARIBAS EASY - Low Carbon 300 World PAB", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 50.891, "architecture_energy": 34.898, "architecture_maturity": 63.451, "architecture_confidence": 89.316, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.05, "rotation_up": 31.0, "upward_expansion": 62.88, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 27.94, "downward_expansion": 24.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.801333, 19.954818, 19.588805, 19.125009 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 20.115, "trend_reference": 18.6141, "distance_from_trend": 0.080632, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.598305, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.211871, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.524242, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.136955, "excess_performance": 0.072315, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.080632, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04345, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.211871, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049182, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.025242, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02859, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.136955, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.016934, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4773, "relative_activity": 1.326146, "balance": 2.016934, "dry_up": 1.851896, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024433, "annualized_volatility": 0.137326, "from_high_reference": -0.021406, "from_low_reference": 0.200896 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.6141, "fair_value_reference": 16.598305, "structural_low": 16.75, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.035155, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.006661, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.058326, "worst_return": -0.022776, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.037936, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.002451, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.09841, "worst_return": 0.01185, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.108684, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.045085, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.185442, "worst_return": 0.094076, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.70781, "energy": 64.870926, "activity_lines": [ 20.107666, 19.998309, 19.309319, 18.877168 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.780001, "volume": 12831, "typical_volume": 3594.15, "trend": 18.496067, "fair_value": 16.50717, "relative_strength": 5.983033, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.734909, "energy": 54.965292, "activity_lines": [ 19.9602, 20.001909, 19.413024, 18.964376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.424, "volume": 2238, "typical_volume": 3595.5, "trend": 18.553133, "fair_value": 16.550106, "relative_strength": 1.822051, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.128868, "energy": 35.200884, "activity_lines": [ 19.734067, 19.917545, 19.472548, 19.024243 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.115, "volume": 4773, "typical_volume": 3599.15, "trend": 18.6141, "fair_value": 16.598305, "relative_strength": 2.524242, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.890608, "energy": 34.898301, "activity_lines": [ 19.801333, 19.954818, 19.588805, 19.125009 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }