{ "ticker": { "uuid": "36629cdd-497f-4618-bba2-f4040b0d39f4", "symbol": "300601", "name": "Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.123, "architecture_energy": 21.693, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 72.465, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.92, "rotation_up": 28.76, "upward_expansion": 19.66, "deceleration": 46.88, "rotation_down": 23.65, "downward_expansion": 55.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.382667, 12.078448, 12.43525, 12.901582 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 12.85, "trend_reference": 13.622143, "distance_from_trend": -0.056683, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.0977, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.289965, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.705975, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.177863, "excess_performance": -0.185263, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.056683, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090765, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.289965, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039945, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.17706, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078398, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.177863, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.812316, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 70743340, "relative_activity": 1.16298, "balance": 0.812316, "dry_up": 1.41215, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075009, "annualized_volatility": 0.260863, "from_high_reference": -0.391572, "from_low_reference": 0.177819 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.622143, "fair_value_reference": 18.0977, "structural_low": 10.91, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": -0.035477, "positive_rate": 0.309524, "directional_follow_through": 0.690476, "median_excess_return": -0.023005, "regime_survival": 0.904762, "best_return": 0.373965, "worst_return": -0.194704, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.07875, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.055428, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.285621, "worst_return": -0.299081, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.113445, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.204709, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.096939, "worst_return": -0.367715, "sufficient": 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-64.21138, "energy": 59.127568, "activity_lines": [ 11.620667, 11.945731, 12.735379, 13.293941 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.14, "volume": 127263279, "typical_volume": 57561346.9, "trend": 13.890143, "fair_value": 18.360969, "relative_strength": -21.584883, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.800767, "energy": 48.799213, "activity_lines": [ 11.805333, 11.888791, 12.625835, 13.174362 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.72, "volume": 80655305, "typical_volume": 58702785.45, "trend": 13.77181, "fair_value": 18.278747, "relative_strength": -23.832164, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.077685, "energy": 39.436185, "activity_lines": [ 11.824, 11.798157, 12.490148, 13.034353 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.55, "volume": 64938699, "typical_volume": 59884135.5, "trend": 13.686143, "fair_value": 18.194335, "relative_strength": -16.329993, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.259816, "energy": 29.199278, "activity_lines": [ 12.106, 11.903664, 12.444746, 12.955526 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.85, "volume": 70743340, "typical_volume": 60829346.4, "trend": 13.622143, "fair_value": 18.0977, "relative_strength": -17.705975, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.122948, "energy": 21.693372, "activity_lines": [ 12.382667, 12.078448, 12.43525, 12.901582 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }