{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3663b390-f3fd-4ed6-9fb1-2a5e62ea6397", "symbol": "002176", "name": "Jiangxi Special Electric Motor Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.546, "architecture_energy": 76.296, "architecture_maturity": 11.483, "architecture_confidence": 87.98, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.08, "rotation_up": 10.14, "upward_expansion": 18.0, "deceleration": 37.54, "rotation_down": 72.58, "downward_expansion": 91.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.451333, 8.936909, 10.283238, 10.530559 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 9.35, "trend_reference": 10.607333, "distance_from_trend": -0.118534, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.320064, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.003212, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.794003, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.005376, "excess_performance": -0.002023, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.118534, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028336, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.003212, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.594781, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.11794, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.426684, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.005376, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.410823, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 500573789, "relative_activity": 1.010611, "balance": 0.410823, "dry_up": 0.725702, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.134595, "annualized_volatility": 0.704239, "from_high_reference": -0.449028, "from_low_reference": 0.293223 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.607333, "fair_value_reference": 9.320064, "structural_low": 7.23, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.029126, "positive_rate": 0.217391, "directional_follow_through": 0.782609, "median_excess_return": -0.050171, "regime_survival": 0.826087, "best_return": 0.293919, "worst_return": -0.202454, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.018094, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.137012, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.195726, "worst_return": -0.322882, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.136474, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.027481, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.380028, "worst_return": -0.39716, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-03", "close": 10.17, "volume": 86626177, "typical_volume": 485789467.75, "trend": 10.827333, "fair_value": 9.435, "relative_strength": -13.078198, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.402291, "energy": 31.621211, "activity_lines": [ 10.444, 11.277091, 11.653571, 11.307914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 8.66, "volume": 408229027, "typical_volume": 498795308.5, "trend": 10.797333, "fair_value": 9.416923, "relative_strength": -23.071343, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.868555, "energy": 52.166743, "activity_lines": [ 9.776667, 10.622545, 11.394571, 11.168086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.68, "volume": 301248095, "typical_volume": 485133170.1, "trend": 10.740667, "fair_value": 9.389744, "relative_strength": -24.874223, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -46.991105, "energy": 67.158233, "activity_lines": [ 8.942, 9.924182, 11.044381, 10.966968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.72, "volume": 354244897, "typical_volume": 482977262.55, "trend": 10.683333, "fair_value": 9.364744, "relative_strength": -24.581427, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -50.967738, "energy": 74.047303, "activity_lines": [ 8.358667, 9.368909, 10.713333, 10.772086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.21, "volume": 281745836, "typical_volume": 482054519.1, "trend": 10.620333, "fair_value": 9.335321, "relative_strength": -18.451659, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.305795, "energy": 84.201632, "activity_lines": [ 8.164, 9.006909, 10.439714, 10.612516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.35, "volume": 500573789, "typical_volume": 495317811.05, "trend": 10.607333, "fair_value": 9.320064, "relative_strength": -11.794003, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.546416, "energy": 76.296406, "activity_lines": [ 8.451333, 8.936909, 10.283238, 10.530559 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }