{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "366540f8-d87e-4b69-b7bb-93609bf09cc2",
    "symbol": "EX29",
    "name": "iShares (DE) I - iShares STOXX Europe 600 Chemicals UCITS ETF (DE)",
    "exchange": "VIE",
    "country": "AT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^ATX",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 82.666,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 78.363,
    "architecture_energy": 55.731,
    "architecture_maturity": 77.297,
    "architecture_confidence": 55.329,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 15.54,
        "rotation_up": 53.25,
        "upward_expansion": 78.94,
        "deceleration": 71.24,
        "rotation_down": 25.62,
        "downward_expansion": 7.94
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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        122.385893
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      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 129.119995,
    "trend_reference": 119.763334,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.078126,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 121.417308,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.06344,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -9.935633,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.111762,
    "excess_performance": -0.062485,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.078126,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.044879,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.06344,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.082354,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.099356,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.042582,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.111762,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 3.5,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 0,
      "relative_activity": 0.0,
      "balance": 3.5,
      "dry_up": 0.0,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.022257,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.193176,
      "from_high_reference": -0.004011,
      "from_low_reference": 0.21399
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 119.763334,
      "fair_value_reference": 121.417308,
      "structural_low": 106.440002,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 22,
        "median_return": -0.009805,
        "positive_rate": 0.363636,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.363636,
        "median_excess_return": -0.023939,
        "regime_survival": 0.727273,
        "best_return": 0.073331,
        "worst_return": -0.089521,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.006541,
        "positive_rate": 0.625,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.625,
        "median_excess_return": -0.056344,
        "regime_survival": 0.375,
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        "worst_return": -0.084703,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.026966,
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        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
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        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.039793,
        "worst_return": -0.173337,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
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        "worst_return": -0.140642,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 812.25,
        "trend": 113.866,
        "fair_value": 121.110769,
        "relative_strength": -14.19385,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 59.934984,
        "energy": 63.933668,
        "activity_lines": [
          120.123999,
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          115.321419
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 119.199997,
        "volume": 1290,
        "typical_volume": 796.95,
        "trend": 113.987333,
        "fair_value": 121.082692,
        "relative_strength": -12.969552,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 56.149241,
        "energy": 41.148238,
        "activity_lines": [
          119.691998,
          118.973453,
          117.24638,
          115.665548
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 123.260002,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 783.65,
        "trend": 114.224667,
        "fair_value": 121.094359,
        "relative_strength": -11.238378,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 70.27823,
        "energy": 46.231036,
        "activity_lines": [
          120.746666,
          120.030545,
          117.969333,
          116.263785
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 123.440002,
        "volume": 258,
        "typical_volume": 755.45,
        "trend": 114.619334,
        "fair_value": 121.103718,
        "relative_strength": -12.876443,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 67.471512,
        "energy": 47.356994,
        "activity_lines": [
          121.721334,
          120.939636,
          118.644857,
          116.858323
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 122.360001,
        "volume": 516,
        "typical_volume": 767.55,
        "trend": 114.998667,
        "fair_value": 121.114872,
        "relative_strength": -12.094257,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 61.386068,
        "energy": 59.33495,
        "activity_lines": [
          122.170668,
          121.377455,
          119.156476,
          117.357721
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 123.940002,
        "volume": 258,
        "typical_volume": 711.95,
        "trend": 115.375334,
        "fair_value": 121.134359,
        "relative_strength": -12.758347,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 70.283319,
        "energy": 75.412418,
        "activity_lines": [
          123.012001,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 123.480003,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 698.25,
        "trend": 115.841334,
        "fair_value": 121.172821,
        "relative_strength": -15.97787,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 65.83816,
        "energy": 75.422395,
        "activity_lines": [
          123.358669,
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          118.457463
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 124.800003,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 602.35,
        "trend": 116.315334,
        "fair_value": 121.197692,
        "relative_strength": -12.826858,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 76.597206,
        "energy": 84.557651,
        "activity_lines": [
          123.860002,
          122.894547,
          120.844001,
          119.035441
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 128.199997,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 588.65,
        "trend": 116.945334,
        "fair_value": 121.261923,
        "relative_strength": -11.996151,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 90.290293,
        "energy": 92.913164,
        "activity_lines": [
          125.392001,
          124.01091,
          121.699238,
          119.802194
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 125.639999,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 547.55,
        "trend": 117.53,
        "fair_value": 121.288462,
        "relative_strength": -12.056542,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.713824,
        "energy": 83.401343,
        "activity_lines": [
          125.753333,
          124.530182,
          122.269619,
          120.36314
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 125.300003,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 547.55,
        "trend": 118.080667,
        "fair_value": 121.317436,
        "relative_strength": -10.094688,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.579381,
        "energy": 69.146868,
        "activity_lines": [
          125.782667,
          124.891274,
          122.774191,
          120.864431
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 124.5,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 369.45,
        "trend": 118.61,
        "fair_value": 121.318205,
        "relative_strength": -11.388917,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 61.437426,
        "energy": 53.880765,
        "activity_lines": [
          125.454667,
          124.989092,
          123.176858,
          121.278581
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 125.800003,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 328.35,
        "trend": 119.146667,
        "fair_value": 121.355513,
        "relative_strength": -10.0261,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 60.900669,
        "energy": 46.425808,
        "activity_lines": [
          125.492001,
          125.22691,
          123.636953,
          121.742452
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 129.119995,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 273.55,
        "trend": 119.763334,
        "fair_value": 121.417308,
        "relative_strength": -9.935633,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 78.362558,
        "energy": 55.730845,
        "activity_lines": [
          126.569333,
          126.022182,
          124.35381,
          122.385893
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}