{ "ticker": { "uuid": "36657836-f8ee-40f4-9857-21453745b664", "symbol": "LULU", "name": "lululemon athletica inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.895, "architecture_energy": 39.433, "architecture_maturity": 92.855, "architecture_confidence": 84.222, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.61, "rotation_up": 27.76, "upward_expansion": 22.91, "deceleration": 46.34, "rotation_down": 36.74, "downward_expansion": 61.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 105.133333, 103.898182, 106.846953, 114.247183 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 110.0, "trend_reference": 125.818666, "distance_from_trend": -0.125726, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 258.779553, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.574928, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -36.830044, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.25555, "excess_performance": -0.429796, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.125726, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.140336, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.574928, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019997, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.3683, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07147, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.25555, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.307692, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.307692, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064895, "annualized_volatility": 0.437196, "from_high_reference": -0.422208, "from_low_reference": 0.175214 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 125.818666, "fair_value_reference": 258.779553, "structural_low": 93.599998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.012284, "positive_rate": 0.380952, "directional_follow_through": 0.619048, "median_excess_return": -0.024597, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.19667, "worst_return": -0.275302, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.126374, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.205138, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.351059, "worst_return": -0.337199, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.148334, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.242241, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.199138, "worst_return": -0.388372, 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137.080774 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 99.099998, "volume": 13, "typical_volume": 35.1, "trend": 144.981999, "fair_value": 272.628912, "relative_strength": -47.291473, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.14716, "energy": 86.974559, "activity_lines": [ 106.073332, 112.796, 124.164666, 134.031871 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 104.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 34.85, "trend": 143.563999, "fair_value": 271.045258, "relative_strength": -45.117157, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.109484, "energy": 65.908069, "activity_lines": [ 104.973333, 109.947273, 121.358762, 131.387871 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 97.900002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 34.85, "trend": 142.006666, "fair_value": 269.466412, "relative_strength": -49.481812, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established 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135.744, "fair_value": 264.954874, "relative_strength": -41.625799, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.873972, "energy": 60.028203, "activity_lines": [ 103.106669, 103.640001, 111.886858, 121.376731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 102.800003, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 17.7, "trend": 133.190667, "fair_value": 263.407438, "relative_strength": -41.081966, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.012483, "energy": 54.0488, "activity_lines": [ 103.206669, 103.258183, 110.143239, 119.251312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 101.199997, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 12.4, "trend": 130.563333, "fair_value": 261.866412, "relative_strength": -41.800288, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.823623, "energy": 52.480766, "activity_lines": [ 102.853334, 102.767274, 108.508096, 117.187398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 103.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 9.55, "trend": 128.01, "fair_value": 260.303591, "relative_strength": -39.838477, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.377163, "energy": 47.23268, "activity_lines": [ 102.88, 102.647273, 107.25981, 115.409119 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 110.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 5.45, "trend": 125.818666, "fair_value": 258.779553, "relative_strength": -36.830044, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.895382, "energy": 39.432701, "activity_lines": [ 105.133333, 103.898182, 106.846953, 114.247183 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }