{ "ticker": { "uuid": "366586d2-092c-45d6-ad58-48b363f0a023", "symbol": "EXEL", "name": "Exelixis Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 47.439, "architecture_energy": 37.991, "architecture_maturity": 80.45, "architecture_confidence": 61.741, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.41, "rotation_up": 40.8, "upward_expansion": 67.37, "deceleration": 65.17, "rotation_down": 26.53, "downward_expansion": 17.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 54.461333, 54.625273, 52.664952, 50.433204 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 54.07, "trend_reference": 47.817167, "distance_from_trend": 0.130765, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 34.195224, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.581215, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.070988, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.231663, "excess_performance": 0.044209, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.130765, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.08363, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.581215, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046657, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.06071, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.113578, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.231663, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.698736, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20194584, "relative_activity": 1.603281, "balance": 2.698736, "dry_up": 1.049517, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061531, "annualized_volatility": 0.226317, "from_high_reference": -0.060796, "from_low_reference": 0.601837 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 47.817167, "fair_value_reference": 34.195224, "structural_low": 39.71, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.018743, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.411765, "median_excess_return": -0.031166, "regime_survival": 0.735294, "best_return": 0.27982, "worst_return": -0.159162, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.013147, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.071546, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.344086, "worst_return": -0.266635, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.152118, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.006201, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.296699, "worst_return": -0.331017, "sufficient": true }, { 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54.201333, 52.694727, 49.521024, 47.791645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 56.5, "volume": 13992882, "typical_volume": 13299345.4, "trend": 46.476167, "fair_value": 33.316635, "relative_strength": 11.048621, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.956843, "energy": 69.167921, "activity_lines": [ 55.144, 53.677273, 50.415238, 48.471935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 55.92, "volume": 11126341, "typical_volume": 13103161.85, "trend": 46.8635, "fair_value": 33.548878, "relative_strength": 14.650885, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.377272, "energy": 70.800761, "activity_lines": [ 55.64, 54.321273, 51.192929, 49.081215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 55.37, "volume": 9355917, "typical_volume": 12485749.05, "trend": 47.167833, "fair_value": 33.776571, "relative_strength": 15.361289, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.358454, "energy": 62.930472, "activity_lines": [ 55.766667, 54.724182, 51.861762, 49.630022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 53.03, "volume": 12201150, "typical_volume": 12368707.7, "trend": 47.482833, "fair_value": 33.986571, "relative_strength": 9.594905, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.131848, "energy": 49.808405, "activity_lines": [ 54.882667, 54.606364, 52.241905, 50.008226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 54.07, "volume": 20194584, "typical_volume": 12595789.35, "trend": 47.817167, "fair_value": 34.195224, "relative_strength": 6.070988, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.43885, "energy": 37.991227, "activity_lines": [ 54.461333, 54.625273, 52.664952, 50.433204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }