{ "ticker": { "uuid": "36680633-f730-407b-9c67-be61712ad32c", "symbol": "MLMTP", "name": "Montepino Log\u00edstica, SOCIMI, S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 52.317, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.258, "architecture_energy": 41.086, "architecture_maturity": 66.606, "architecture_confidence": 91.417, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.51, "rotation_up": 27.59, "upward_expansion": 19.36, "deceleration": 46.98, "rotation_down": 42.16, "downward_expansion": 71.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.8, 9.760754, 9.902506, 10.055466 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.0, "trend_reference": 10.204884, "distance_from_trend": -0.020077, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.539049, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.048323, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.611525, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.038462, "excess_performance": -0.091773, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.020077, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004694, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.048323, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063677, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.066115, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117202, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.038462, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.748295, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 330, "relative_activity": 0.220257, "balance": 0.748295, "dry_up": 0.255298, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01815, "annualized_volatility": 0.143227, "from_high_reference": -0.074074, "from_low_reference": 0.081081 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.204884, "fair_value_reference": 9.539049, "structural_low": 9.615464, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.010638, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.01365, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.052632, "worst_return": -0.010753, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.049308, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.008007, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.087977, "worst_return": 0.010638, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.084672, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.041605, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.106383, "worst_return": 0.062961, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.661598, "energy": 66.046274, "activity_lines": [ 9.709634, 9.752703, 10.008885, 10.136196 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.7, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1514.25, "trend": 10.221551, "fair_value": 9.535972, "relative_strength": -6.007271, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.881061, "energy": 62.469801, "activity_lines": [ 9.707698, 9.731784, 9.959616, 10.102763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.7, "volume": 1200, "typical_volume": 1481.75, "trend": 10.211551, "fair_value": 9.536549, "relative_strength": -7.352409, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.329527, "energy": 61.670938, "activity_lines": [ 9.706667, 9.716286, 9.914633, 10.069114 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.0, "volume": 330, "typical_volume": 1498.25, "trend": 10.204884, "fair_value": 9.539049, "relative_strength": -6.611525, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.258257, "energy": 41.086188, "activity_lines": [ 9.8, 9.760754, 9.902506, 10.055466 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }