{ "ticker": { "uuid": "36688ac5-606a-4241-b5f4-59243f63a5f7", "symbol": "SLB", "name": "Schlumberger NV", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 55.662, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -4.64, "architecture_energy": 7.346, "architecture_maturity": 24.523, "architecture_confidence": 80.051, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 65.52, "rotation_up": 35.1, "upward_expansion": 25.55, "deceleration": 49.56, "rotation_down": 22.97, "downward_expansion": 25.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.000667, 49.302, 50.95062, 50.97826 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 50.53, "trend_reference": 50.633855, "distance_from_trend": -0.002051, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 43.410689, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.163999, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.984117, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.007551, "excess_performance": -0.118074, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.002051, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084694, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.163999, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065158, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.019841, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.163494, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.007551, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.940635, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 53782619, "relative_activity": 0.762555, "balance": 0.940635, "dry_up": 0.902559, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081587, "annualized_volatility": 0.446545, "from_high_reference": -0.136479, "from_low_reference": 0.626755 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.633855, "fair_value_reference": 43.410689, "structural_low": 43.325182, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.000285, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -0.014587, "regime_survival": 0.352941, "best_return": 0.246772, "worst_return": -0.159294, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.01067, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.000547, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.519207, "worst_return": -0.206673, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.281792, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.235138, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.523711, "worst_return": -0.237712, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.186862, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.187767, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.652651, "worst_return": -0.220513, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.077839, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.156418, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.065608, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.133964, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.010433, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.073301, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.079418, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.010879, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.305685, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": 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51.50987, 50.973982 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 46.99, "volume": 45723734, "typical_volume": 76655858.8, "trend": 49.611083, "fair_value": 43.469185, "relative_strength": 0.005825, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.978799, "energy": 54.679663, "activity_lines": [ 46.898, 49.283053, 51.099784, 50.824928 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 52.42, "volume": 84958389, "typical_volume": 76066024.95, "trend": 50.112382, "fair_value": 43.465751, "relative_strength": 11.672585, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.359338, "energy": 28.369886, "activity_lines": [ 48.706667, 49.498202, 51.226293, 51.006148 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 49.59, "volume": 70163402, "typical_volume": 74550118.6, "trend": 50.439883, "fair_value": 43.441088, "relative_strength": 4.055815, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -1.087366, "energy": 7.68287, "activity_lines": [ 49.283333, 49.247425, 51.055839, 50.972446 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.53, "volume": 53782619, "typical_volume": 70529530.4, "trend": 50.633855, "fair_value": 43.410689, "relative_strength": 1.984117, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.639802, "energy": 7.346074, "activity_lines": [ 50.000667, 49.302, 50.95062, 50.97826 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }