{ "ticker": { "uuid": "366f54a3-9bdd-4e24-8117-dcfe4e2a77bb", "symbol": "ORTINGLOBE", "name": "Ortin Global Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 50.345, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -15.287, "architecture_energy": 19.132, "architecture_maturity": 13.949, "architecture_confidence": 54.852, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.46, "rotation_up": 15.59, "upward_expansion": 13.88, "deceleration": 66.5, "rotation_down": 57.26, "downward_expansion": 41.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.272667, 15.812364, 15.869667, 15.794516 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 15.15, "trend_reference": 15.516, "distance_from_trend": -0.023589, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.594231, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.087032, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.250174, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.208134, "excess_performance": 0.251843, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.023589, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075012, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.087032, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033683, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.062502, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093996, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.208134, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.10762, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 103506, "relative_activity": 2.310931, "balance": 1.10762, "dry_up": 1.492004, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.114191, "annualized_volatility": 0.625843, "from_high_reference": -0.238693, "from_low_reference": 0.421201 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.516, "fair_value_reference": 16.594231, "structural_low": 12.01, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.019884, "positive_rate": 0.409091, "directional_follow_through": 0.409091, "median_excess_return": -0.037071, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.378509, "worst_return": -0.192308, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.033333, "positive_rate": 0.181818, "directional_follow_through": 0.181818, "median_excess_return": -0.063029, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.242983, "worst_return": -0.363918, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.096866, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.116935, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.230954, 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false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.099359, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.056716, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.085174, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.058407, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.198591, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.251804, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.296985, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.274455, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.109644, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022957, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 19.4, "volume": 21765, "typical_volume": 315603.65, "trend": 21.073333, "fair_value": 26.431315, "relative_strength": -17.805301, "stage": 4, "regime": 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16.49, "volume": 140889, "typical_volume": 44404.7, "trend": 15.325, "fair_value": 16.721667, "relative_strength": 18.239952, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.958227, "energy": 28.048746, "activity_lines": [ 16.704667, 16.631636, 16.087524, 15.84271 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.51, "volume": 81248, "typical_volume": 39318.85, "trend": 15.382, "fair_value": 16.688718, "relative_strength": 10.054825, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.927285, "energy": 13.36535, "activity_lines": [ 16.254667, 16.491818, 16.049143, 15.854645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.81, "volume": 25475, "typical_volume": 38185.4, "trend": 15.41, "fair_value": 16.653526, "relative_strength": 7.130595, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.830532, "energy": 14.125111, "activity_lines": [ 15.698667, 16.215273, 15.952095, 15.817742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.35, "volume": 57077, "typical_volume": 40323.35, "trend": 15.45, "fair_value": 16.624038, "relative_strength": 8.250735, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.566843, "energy": 11.951147, "activity_lines": [ 15.449333, 16.032182, 15.916714, 15.813871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.15, "volume": 103506, "typical_volume": 44789.75, "trend": 15.516, "fair_value": 16.594231, "relative_strength": 6.250174, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.286812, "energy": 19.131789, "activity_lines": [ 15.272667, 15.812364, 15.869667, 15.794516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }