{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3674d4d7-45ba-4efe-b843-44da6f1fc1be", "symbol": "HLAG", "name": "Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 27.134, "architecture_energy": 60.81, "architecture_maturity": 9.498, "architecture_confidence": 58.991, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.41, "rotation_up": 69.8, "upward_expansion": 55.56, "deceleration": 17.83, "rotation_down": 14.23, "downward_expansion": 28.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 125.760002, 122.425456, 118.545771, 118.920438 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 124.400002, "trend_reference": 119.188522, "distance_from_trend": 0.043725, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 128.754808, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.033822, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.005597, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.072744, "excess_performance": -0.101503, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.043725, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016154, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.033822, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.117908, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.140056, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.081819, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.072744, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.86811, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 68, "relative_activity": 1.030303, "balance": 0.86811, "dry_up": 1.92803, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047688, "annualized_volatility": 0.438969, "from_high_reference": -0.194087, "from_low_reference": 0.167946 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 119.188522, "fair_value_reference": 128.754808, "structural_low": 106.51174, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.058726, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.070013, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.148597, "worst_return": -0.141148, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.096814, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.189568, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.049906, "worst_return": -0.2811, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.132221, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.346433, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.118226, "worst_return": -0.311603, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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-37.345411, "energy": 17.463302, "activity_lines": [ 114.340001, 113.443256, 115.983521, 117.151019 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 112.400002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 93.55, "trend": 117.667876, "fair_value": 130.789876, "relative_strength": -22.855027, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.521509, "energy": 22.168334, "activity_lines": [ 113.853334, 113.374528, 115.385115, 116.811245 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 118.099998, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 72.3, "trend": 117.755307, "fair_value": 130.451744, "relative_strength": -20.252939, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.184032, "energy": 15.50817, "activity_lines": [ 115.3, 114.385705, 115.346539, 116.839124 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 116.199997, "volume": 440, "typical_volume": 89.3, "trend": 117.594253, "fair_value": 129.918624, "relative_strength": -19.880402, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.698359, "energy": 13.945675, "activity_lines": [ 115.559999, 114.886799, 115.124264, 116.738782 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 126.800003, "volume": 351, "typical_volume": 100.45, "trend": 118.091872, "fair_value": 129.569028, "relative_strength": -10.312097, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.897714, "energy": 31.547727, "activity_lines": [ 119.386667, 117.16205, 115.938234, 117.332701 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 129.800003, "volume": 90, "typical_volume": 82.25, "trend": 118.702484, "fair_value": 129.254221, "relative_strength": -8.834981, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 41.207751, "energy": 58.809291, "activity_lines": [ 123.560001, 119.727273, 117.042005, 118.088064 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 126.300003, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 67.1, "trend": 119.095733, "fair_value": 128.954206, "relative_strength": -10.705841, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.407167, "energy": 60.024278, "activity_lines": [ 125.440002, 121.37091, 117.850968, 118.578227 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 124.400002, "volume": 68, "typical_volume": 66.0, "trend": 119.188522, "fair_value": 128.754808, "relative_strength": -14.005597, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.133503, "energy": 60.809967, "activity_lines": [ 125.760002, 122.425456, 118.545771, 118.920438 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }