{ "ticker": { "uuid": "367cce8a-465b-409f-bbaa-0ad7ef1644a5", "symbol": "1269", "name": "Kanpai Co., Ltd", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.37, "architecture_energy": 53.027, "architecture_maturity": 28.12, "architecture_confidence": 92.795, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.45, "rotation_up": 12.25, "upward_expansion": 11.02, "deceleration": 38.65, "rotation_down": 67.02, "downward_expansion": 89.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 64.900001, 66.798182, 68.725238, 69.124946 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 63.900002, "trend_reference": 69.193333, "distance_from_trend": -0.076501, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 83.935184, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.238698, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -29.430913, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.077922, "excess_performance": -0.519294, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.076501, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040866, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.238698, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006972, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.294309, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013605, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.077922, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.575255, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28644, "relative_activity": 0.502531, "balance": 0.575255, "dry_up": 1.051808, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.10762, "annualized_volatility": 0.405616, "from_high_reference": -0.251756, "from_low_reference": 0.257874 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 69.193333, "fair_value_reference": 83.935184, "structural_low": 58.5, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.009009, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.030299, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.13782, "worst_return": -0.132824, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.061905, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.093037, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.150278, "worst_return": -0.160216, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.180672, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.169, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.338095, "worst_return": -0.12633, "sufficient": false 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"date": "2026-07-31", "close": 66.0, "volume": 33694, "typical_volume": 52508.75, "trend": 69.14, "fair_value": 84.656888, "relative_strength": -24.625886, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.375564, "energy": 28.787972, "activity_lines": [ 66.766667, 68.483636, 69.943333, 69.773118 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 64.400002, "volume": 127589, "typical_volume": 56964.25, "trend": 69.206667, "fair_value": 84.310069, "relative_strength": -27.315696, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.950137, "energy": 41.458052, "activity_lines": [ 65.693334, 67.638182, 69.365714, 69.467312 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 63.900002, "volume": 28644, "typical_volume": 56999.45, "trend": 69.193333, "fair_value": 83.935184, "relative_strength": -29.430913, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.369896, "energy": 53.027415, "activity_lines": [ 64.900001, 66.798182, 68.725238, 69.124946 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }