{ "ticker": { "uuid": "367edc63-758e-4e25-93d1-8bac9b9f216f", "symbol": "603168", "name": "Zhejiang Shapuaisi Pharmaceutical Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.303, "architecture_energy": 43.671, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 61.375, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.43, "rotation_up": 27.13, "upward_expansion": 19.1, "deceleration": 66.98, "rotation_down": 39.74, "downward_expansion": 66.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.132, 5.086909, 5.449524, 5.833591 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.38, "trend_reference": 6.357333, "distance_from_trend": -0.153733, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.897713, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.31879, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.080079, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.268027, "excess_performance": -0.224823, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.153733, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.125619, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.31879, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.141554, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.230801, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035951, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.268027, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.575114, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32846042, "relative_activity": 1.008048, "balance": 0.575114, "dry_up": 1.291733, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.088075, "annualized_volatility": 0.294946, "from_high_reference": -0.408141, "from_low_reference": 0.169565 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.357333, "fair_value_reference": 7.897713, "structural_low": 4.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.016132, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.025334, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.204918, "worst_return": -0.165829, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.009843, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.006064, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.267913, "worst_return": -0.270769, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.068792, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.01764, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.258567, "worst_return": -0.370518, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -31.383522, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.279235, "energy": 66.801664, "activity_lines": [ 4.914, 5.060545, 5.577524, 5.984839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.2, "volume": 39101090, "typical_volume": 36653475.95, "trend": 6.423333, "fair_value": 7.918911, "relative_strength": -24.349833, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.062432, "energy": 57.281138, "activity_lines": [ 5.008, 5.048364, 5.500095, 5.900903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.38, "volume": 32846042, "typical_volume": 32583821.4, "trend": 6.357333, "fair_value": 7.897713, "relative_strength": -23.080079, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.30265, "energy": 43.670584, "activity_lines": [ 5.132, 5.086909, 5.449524, 5.833591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }