{ "ticker": { "uuid": "367fee1c-ff08-448f-bc3c-7447786daa0f", "symbol": "300614", "name": "Henan BCCY Environmental Energy Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.189, "architecture_energy": 55.981, "architecture_maturity": 59.238, "architecture_confidence": 94.962, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.92, "rotation_up": 23.44, "upward_expansion": 9.43, "deceleration": 60.0, "rotation_down": 56.9, "downward_expansion": 82.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.652, 9.822182, 10.852476, 11.711118 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.46, "trend_reference": 12.722, "distance_from_trend": -0.177802, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.550321, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.228063, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.040688, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.332056, "excess_performance": -0.339456, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.177802, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077403, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.228063, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.163548, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.250407, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058276, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.332056, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.329076, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15866742, "relative_activity": 1.085032, "balance": 0.329076, "dry_up": 1.15592, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 7 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.11384, "annualized_volatility": 0.410894, "from_high_reference": -0.396074, "from_low_reference": 0.299379 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.722, "fair_value_reference": 13.550321, "structural_low": 8.05, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.019114, "positive_rate": 0.45, "directional_follow_through": 0.55, "median_excess_return": -0.020613, "regime_survival": 0.85, "best_return": 0.265787, "worst_return": -0.426486, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.151751, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.094267, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.288838, "worst_return": -0.443241, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.27701, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.275695, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.210587, "worst_return": -0.448971, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.640816, "energy": 89.865413, "activity_lines": [ 10.110667, 10.886364, 11.937048, 12.608452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.13, "volume": 15883001, "typical_volume": 16942914.15, "trend": 13.005, "fair_value": 13.900128, "relative_strength": -34.33798, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.723794, "energy": 91.433867, "activity_lines": [ 9.666667, 10.434909, 11.582, 12.350538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.82, "volume": 20906993, "typical_volume": 15940926.9, "trend": 12.89, "fair_value": 13.778141, "relative_strength": -35.943738, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.970326, "energy": 88.007851, "activity_lines": [ 9.306, 10.014182, 11.232238, 12.080538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.5, "volume": 14956725, "typical_volume": 14820379.4, "trend": 12.796, "fair_value": 13.643526, "relative_strength": -29.131995, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.807791, "energy": 70.684736, "activity_lines": [ 9.31, 9.797818, 10.983238, 11.861828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.46, "volume": 15866742, "typical_volume": 14623299.75, "trend": 12.722, "fair_value": 13.550321, "relative_strength": -25.040688, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.189, "energy": 55.981187, "activity_lines": [ 9.652, 9.822182, 10.852476, 11.711118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }