{ "ticker": { "uuid": "36867f39-c3ad-440a-a2a8-e609c098798f", "symbol": "002108", "name": "Cangzhou Mingzhu Plastic Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.142, "architecture_energy": 43.719, "architecture_maturity": 31.553, "architecture_confidence": 89.719, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.12, "rotation_up": 24.57, "upward_expansion": 11.36, "deceleration": 53.47, "rotation_down": 46.94, "downward_expansion": 73.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.277333, 4.29405, 4.608111, 4.741609 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.32, "trend_reference": 4.882982, "distance_from_trend": -0.115295, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.893638, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.109502, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.189734, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.116564, "excess_performance": -0.123964, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.115295, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031466, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.109502, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.388416, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.101897, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.174623, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.116564, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.161697, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 114430641, "relative_activity": 0.362532, "balance": 0.161697, "dry_up": 0.433054, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085511, "annualized_volatility": 0.392651, "from_high_reference": -0.322026, "from_low_reference": 0.210084 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.882982, "fair_value_reference": 3.893638, "structural_low": 3.91, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.002725, "positive_rate": 0.52, "directional_follow_through": 0.48, "median_excess_return": -0.007429, "regime_survival": 0.84, "best_return": 0.201961, "worst_return": -0.182657, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.038883, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.000555, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.273631, "worst_return": -0.271493, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.072151, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.011279, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.206154, "worst_return": -0.178216, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"gate": "down", "direction": -64.85504, "energy": 73.679734, "activity_lines": [ 4.252737, 4.440635, 4.782484, 4.868551 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.14, "volume": 128817183, "typical_volume": 335475462.45, "trend": 4.922649, "fair_value": 3.892946, "relative_strength": -10.840258, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.459143, "energy": 72.122686, "activity_lines": [ 4.202, 4.345326, 4.708296, 4.816488 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.34, "volume": 113843918, "typical_volume": 325364225.75, "trend": 4.897982, "fair_value": 3.893174, "relative_strength": -5.08356, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.568525, "energy": 52.855192, "activity_lines": [ 4.247333, 4.313288, 4.657394, 4.778898 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.32, "volume": 114430641, "typical_volume": 315642973.8, "trend": 4.882982, "fair_value": 3.893638, "relative_strength": -10.189734, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.141859, "energy": 43.718742, "activity_lines": [ 4.277333, 4.29405, 4.608111, 4.741609 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }