{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3686f71e-95de-4d41-8b85-e1fd11f8a48a", "symbol": "SMCO", "name": "HILTON SMALL-MIDCAP OPPORTUNITY ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 67.657, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 50.586, "architecture_energy": 26.667, "architecture_maturity": 35.15, "architecture_confidence": 75.134, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.33, "rotation_up": 31.26, "upward_expansion": 54.99, "deceleration": 88.28, "rotation_down": 25.84, "downward_expansion": 18.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.028653, 30.080144, 29.910872, 29.523905 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 30.5818, "trend_reference": 29.132653, "distance_from_trend": 0.049743, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.424342, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.202855, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.740742, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.042456, "excess_performance": -0.144998, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.049743, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037853, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.202855, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018416, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.047407, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03884, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.042456, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.573702, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37353, "relative_activity": 0.315073, "balance": 0.573702, "dry_up": 0.621409, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027125, "annualized_volatility": 0.139014, "from_high_reference": -0.018792, "from_low_reference": 0.213688 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.132653, "fair_value_reference": 25.424342, "structural_low": 26.48, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.047072, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.056692, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.103515, "worst_return": -0.009371, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.13095, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.141645, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.13095, "worst_return": 0.13095, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024237, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.011426, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.00118, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.047285, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": 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"energy": 42.151427, "activity_lines": [ 30.267767, 30.102382, 29.611766, 29.256 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 29.915, "volume": 115684, "typical_volume": 127472.8, "trend": 28.883262, "fair_value": 25.32545, "relative_strength": -3.48227, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.940078, "energy": 37.771382, "activity_lines": [ 30.144073, 30.097989, 29.695207, 29.328817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.71, "volume": 102643, "typical_volume": 126065.7, "trend": 28.965747, "fair_value": 25.356994, "relative_strength": -2.447173, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.668556, "energy": 24.685863, "activity_lines": [ 29.97318, 30.049984, 29.753805, 29.382155 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.6283, "volume": 39001, "typical_volume": 120912.75, "trend": 29.04722, "fair_value": 25.387503, "relative_strength": -3.112543, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.769839, "energy": 18.048872, "activity_lines": [ 29.807447, 29.97762, 29.793617, 29.4249 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.5818, "volume": 37353, "typical_volume": 118553.55, "trend": 29.132653, "fair_value": 25.424342, "relative_strength": -4.740742, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.585585, "energy": 26.666943, "activity_lines": [ 30.028653, 30.080144, 29.910872, 29.523905 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }