{ "ticker": { "uuid": "368dd2b4-9f19-49db-85cf-e4e9b3122ab0", "symbol": "RYAAYN", "name": "Ryanair Holdings plc", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.438, "architecture_energy": 59.452, "architecture_maturity": 30.963, "architecture_confidence": 66.166, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.64, "rotation_up": 13.56, "upward_expansion": 11.88, "deceleration": 54.77, "rotation_down": 74.82, "downward_expansion": 78.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 1028.639627, 1051.395162, 1054.282006, 1066.775353 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1010.890015, "trend_reference": 1094.375798, "distance_from_trend": -0.076286, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1415.665512, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.285926, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.965397, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.169905, "excess_performance": -0.115238, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.076286, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038009, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.285926, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018282, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.119654, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025328, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.169905, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.330121, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.330121, "dry_up": 2.427294, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028538, "annualized_volatility": 0.247333, "from_high_reference": -0.169905, "from_low_reference": 0.038878 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1094.375798, "fair_value_reference": 1415.665512, "structural_low": 973.059005, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.45, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.016651, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.155219, "worst_return": -0.613136, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.017092, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.067878, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.155219, "worst_return": -0.585508, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.110792, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.0916, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.564684, "worst_return": -0.597676, "sufficient": true }, { 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"volume": 2045, "typical_volume": 511.15, "trend": 1113.410333, "fair_value": 1425.576706, "relative_strength": -4.592399, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": 7.400789, "energy": 47.432138, "activity_lines": [ 1112.034832, 1081.647259, 1072.165002, 1086.352961 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1003.300267, "volume": 5500, "typical_volume": 786.15, "trend": 1106.981157, "fair_value": 1422.256757, "relative_strength": -12.946121, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.68447, "energy": 31.270667, "activity_lines": [ 1080.710032, 1069.975429, 1065.335679, 1079.249086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1003.300267, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 786.15, "trend": 1100.551982, "fair_value": 1418.936808, "relative_strength": -13.143317, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.022915, "energy": 40.651866, "activity_lines": [ 1049.353214, 1059.431412, 1059.133736, 1072.559996 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1010.890015, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 777.1, "trend": 1094.375798, "fair_value": 1415.665512, "relative_strength": -11.965397, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.438406, "energy": 59.451712, "activity_lines": [ 1028.639627, 1051.395162, 1054.282006, 1066.775353 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }