{ "ticker": { "uuid": "36904a2f-0bbd-4816-81b5-d9929d962bc2", "symbol": "L23", "name": "Enviro-Hub Holdings Ltd.", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.732, "architecture_energy": 56.138, "architecture_maturity": 9.456, "architecture_confidence": 92.176, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.76, "rotation_up": 15.56, "upward_expansion": 17.06, "deceleration": 32.1, "rotation_down": 59.14, "downward_expansion": 81.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.023667, 0.024727, 0.025481, 0.025867 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.024, "trend_reference": 0.026467, "distance_from_trend": -0.093199, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.024609, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.024746, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.025327, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.111111, "excess_performance": -0.265946, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.093199, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039903, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.024746, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028865, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.250253, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110399, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.111111, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.65133, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 451200, "relative_activity": 0.939061, "balance": 0.65133, "dry_up": 0.587694, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.134615, "annualized_volatility": 0.794409, "from_high_reference": -0.368421, "from_low_reference": 0.142857 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.026467, "fair_value_reference": 0.024609, "structural_low": 0.021, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.015878, "positive_rate": 0.27027, "directional_follow_through": 0.567568, "median_excess_return": -0.018382, "regime_survival": 0.864865, "best_return": 0.114293, "worst_return": -0.204561, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.105269, "positive_rate": 0.153846, "directional_follow_through": 0.846154, "median_excess_return": -0.100362, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.217391, "worst_return": -0.204561, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.172371, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.138513, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.166667, "worst_return": -0.455728, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.095397, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.197644, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.315789, "worst_return": -0.623195, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.043478, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.041667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.083333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.12, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.115385, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", 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[ 0.025533, 0.026073, 0.02621, 0.026475 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.026, "volume": 87400, "typical_volume": 467310.0, "trend": 0.0269, "fair_value": 0.024673, "relative_strength": -18.68122, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.087232, "energy": 29.724922, "activity_lines": [ 0.0256, 0.026018, 0.026171, 0.026415 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.021, "volume": 61000, "typical_volume": 460175.0, "trend": 0.0266, "fair_value": 0.024628, "relative_strength": -34.121632, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.066264, "energy": 59.396745, "activity_lines": [ 0.023933, 0.025073, 0.025671, 0.026034 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.024, "volume": 451200, "typical_volume": 480480.0, "trend": 0.026467, "fair_value": 0.024609, "relative_strength": -25.025327, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.731618, "energy": 56.137861, "activity_lines": [ 0.023667, 0.024727, 0.025481, 0.025867 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }