{ "ticker": { "uuid": "3691a229-04ba-4d91-a6c3-42c5bf09c7eb", "symbol": "1466", "name": "Acelon Chemicals & Fiber Corporation", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 61.082, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 17.588, "architecture_energy": 11.908, "architecture_maturity": 15.978, "architecture_confidence": 56.787, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.39, "rotation_up": 43.13, "upward_expansion": 36.53, "deceleration": 36.31, "rotation_down": 26.77, "downward_expansion": 20.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.503333, 16.455454, 15.955238, 16.098387 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 17.049999, "trend_reference": 16.171667, "distance_from_trend": 0.054313, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.166346, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.203557, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -24.172389, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.024024, "excess_performance": -0.417348, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.054313, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035539, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.203557, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.160466, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.241724, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.157349, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.024024, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.01715, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3382921, "relative_activity": 1.248454, "balance": 2.01715, "dry_up": 1.491111, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.103542, "annualized_volatility": 0.566697, "from_high_reference": -0.188095, "from_low_reference": 0.267658 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.171667, "fair_value_reference": 14.166346, "structural_low": 13.5, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.004274, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.003684, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.281481, "worst_return": -0.058511, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.001976, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.041135, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.3, "worst_return": -0.18883, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.12963, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.182032, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.308197, "worst_return": -0.18883, "sufficient": true 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.119658, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.153392, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.003425, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.075075, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032164, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.124629, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.007143, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.163043, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.049231, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 11.3, "volume": 204135, "typical_volume": 224906.6, "trend": 11.553333, "fair_value": 14.078526, "relative_strength": -10.0624, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.1, "volume": 15617502, "typical_volume": 2534508.6, "trend": 15.866667, "fair_value": 14.033333, "relative_strength": -21.716301, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.253174, "energy": 29.176225, "activity_lines": [ 16.706667, 15.854545, 15.804048, 15.982043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.0, "volume": 7896353, "typical_volume": 2612968.5, "trend": 15.961667, "fair_value": 14.070192, "relative_strength": -23.125497, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.53829, "energy": 33.127728, "activity_lines": [ 16.99, 16.160909, 15.888095, 16.055161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.4, "volume": 3066501, "typical_volume": 2685380.5, "trend": 15.998333, "fair_value": 14.097115, "relative_strength": -28.696516, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.480689, "energy": 17.80112, "activity_lines": [ 16.56, 16.129091, 15.820238, 16.018925 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.25, "volume": 1816000, "typical_volume": 2598491.95, "trend": 16.07, "fair_value": 14.129487, "relative_strength": -25.866737, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 9.727059, "energy": 10.511965, "activity_lines": [ 16.326667, 16.24, 15.845714, 16.035161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 17.049999, "volume": 3382921, "typical_volume": 2709687.2, "trend": 16.171667, "fair_value": 14.166346, "relative_strength": -24.172389, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.587806, "energy": 11.908005, "activity_lines": [ 16.503333, 16.455454, 15.955238, 16.098387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }