{ "ticker": { "uuid": "36942c06-170b-465c-aa4c-db37a648e9e7", "symbol": "GLUX", "name": "Amundi Index Solutions - Amundi Global Luxury UCITS ETF EUR Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 59.47, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 22.449, "architecture_energy": 16.018, "architecture_maturity": 13.559, "architecture_confidence": 53.563, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.47, "rotation_up": 29.4, "upward_expansion": 31.11, "deceleration": 64.25, "rotation_down": 30.81, "downward_expansion": 19.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 207.812668, 208.130541, 205.6679, 204.293629 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 211.399994, "trend_reference": 204.46201, "distance_from_trend": 0.033933, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 202.946853, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.041652, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.708483, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.000669, "excess_performance": -0.05398, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.033933, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010837, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.041652, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064637, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.047085, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002266, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.000669, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.841544, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3587, "relative_activity": 0.500579, "balance": 0.841544, "dry_up": 1.508122, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030238, "annualized_volatility": 0.186358, "from_high_reference": -0.052018, "from_low_reference": 0.147902 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 204.46201, "fair_value_reference": 202.946853, "structural_low": 184.162003, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.002589, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": 0.00571, "regime_survival": 0.352941, "best_return": 0.148771, "worst_return": -0.044328, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.023585, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.00665, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.117391, "worst_return": -0.074349, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.024643, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.036449, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.090695, "worst_return": -0.143749, 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0.090961, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008114, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017476, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.03826, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.003672, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.044328, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": 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23.564617, "activity_lines": [ 208.407334, 207.720737, 203.913404, 203.881559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 204.050003, "volume": 7418, "typical_volume": 7311.55, "trend": 205.18034, "fair_value": 202.990099, "relative_strength": -4.461531, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.099249, "energy": 10.704253, "activity_lines": [ 206.706669, 207.435723, 204.208114, 203.778685 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 206.600006, "volume": 9258, "typical_volume": 7207.45, "trend": 204.838034, "fair_value": 202.942353, "relative_strength": -4.720339, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 7.428366, "energy": 8.117732, "activity_lines": [ 206.320004, 207.423795, 204.736703, 203.870277 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 211.399994, "volume": 3587, "typical_volume": 7165.7, "trend": 204.46201, "fair_value": 202.946853, "relative_strength": -4.708483, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.449282, "energy": 16.017819, "activity_lines": [ 207.812668, 208.130541, 205.6679, 204.293629 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }