{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "369f37e4-6b6a-465e-8d8f-d937efe69d01",
    "symbol": "QQQ5",
    "name": "Leverage Shares 5x Long Nasdaq 100 ETP Securities",
    "exchange": "LSE",
    "country": "GB",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FTSE",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 2.198,
    "architecture_energy": 21.528,
    "architecture_maturity": 72.943,
    "architecture_confidence": 74.373,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 54.44,
        "rotation_up": 14.74,
        "upward_expansion": 42.12,
        "deceleration": 87.43,
        "rotation_down": 45.57,
        "downward_expansion": 36.12
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        2.3126,
        2.496209,
        2.632248,
        2.430854
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 2.599,
    "trend_reference": 2.183717,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.190173,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 1.510886,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.720182,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 19.130028,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.637681,
    "excess_performance": 0.586446,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.190173,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.147051,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.720182,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.473751,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.1913,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.503,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.637681,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.360455,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 2431262,
      "relative_activity": 1.536495,
      "balance": 1.360455,
      "dry_up": 1.225085,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.185293,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.964145,
      "from_high_reference": -0.278256,
      "from_low_reference": 1.614688
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 2.183717,
      "fair_value_reference": 1.510886,
      "structural_low": 0.994,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.082146,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.094556,
        "regime_survival": 0.625,
        "best_return": 0.454215,
        "worst_return": -0.110839,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.250621,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.232697,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.648651,
        "worst_return": 0.230185,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.731314,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.699566,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
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        "worst_return": 0.510614,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.657821,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.530768,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 1.293008,
        "worst_return": 0.022634,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "end": "2024-12-06",
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        "return": 0.380893,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.190737,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.104743,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 1.053571,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2026-01-30",
        "tenure": "Established",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "fair_value": 1.461093,
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        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 1585557.55,
        "trend": 2.13245,
        "fair_value": 1.473625,
        "relative_strength": 36.482514,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 41.66886,
        "energy": 30.437089,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 2.261,
        "volume": 1970500,
        "typical_volume": 1627519.55,
        "trend": 2.146817,
        "fair_value": 1.482895,
        "relative_strength": 7.94376,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 22.288074,
        "energy": 24.192562,
        "activity_lines": [
          2.640133,
          2.836745,
          2.67121,
          2.414001
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 2.143,
        "volume": 1256553,
        "typical_volume": 1562008.95,
        "trend": 2.15415,
        "fair_value": 1.490887,
        "relative_strength": 0.690095,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 7.637576,
        "energy": 19.544134,
        "activity_lines": [
          2.433533,
          2.687982,
          2.651883,
          2.413755
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 1.9815,
        "volume": 2095708,
        "typical_volume": 1551525.7,
        "trend": 2.161317,
        "fair_value": 1.498708,
        "relative_strength": -8.323585,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": -11.302092,
        "energy": 26.681201,
        "activity_lines": [
          2.2467,
          2.525273,
          2.614102,
          2.402616
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 2.599,
        "volume": 2431262,
        "typical_volume": 1582343.25,
        "trend": 2.183717,
        "fair_value": 1.510886,
        "relative_strength": 19.130028,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 2.197614,
        "energy": 21.528223,
        "activity_lines": [
          2.3126,
          2.496209,
          2.632248,
          2.430854
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}